Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
14
Up 62%
1 arb excluded
$515.97
$31.29
Smart Money Signal
9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 45.1Β’ | $176.75 | $245.97 | +$69.22 | 51% 6829-6526 (13355) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 45.1Β’ | $110.83 | $245.97 | +$135.14 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 22.9Β’ | $65.92 | β | -$65.92 | |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 83.2Β’ | $124.16 | $149.27 | +$25.11 | 66% 98635-51024 (149659) |
![]() pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 2.8Β’ | $8.36 | β | -$8.36 | 46% 37887-44532 (82419) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 22.8Β’ | $17.02 | β | -$17.02 | 58% 37375-26622 (63997) |
![]() OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 24.9Β’ | $7.92 | β | -$7.92 | 49% 77593-80930 (158523) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 52Β’ | $12.01 | β | -$12.01 | 58% 60123-43891 (104014) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 66.5Β’ | $13.1 | $19.69 | +$6.59 | 65% 124286-66473 (190759) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 58.5Β’ | $11.37 | $19.43 | +$8.06 | 61% 93968-59068 (153036) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 33Β’ | $13.1 | $39.7 | +$26.6 | 57% 69881-53093 (122974) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 69.1Β’ | $7.2 | $10.42 | +$3.22 | 52% 89418-83862 (173280) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 79Β’ | $7.9 | $10 | +$2.1 | 56% 57594-44483 (102077) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 34Β’ | $5.7 | β | -$5.7 | 55% 17284-13893 (31177) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 66.1Β’ | $8.09 | $12.24 | +$4.15 | 66% 124478-64082 (188560) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 33Β’ | $3.05 | $9.24 | +$6.19 | 51% 19791-18936 (38727) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 38Β’ | $10.68 | $0.01 | +$0.29 | 65% 21722-11935 (33657) |
Invested
$176.75
Value
$245.97
PnL
+$69.22
Record
51%
6829-6526 (13355)
Both legs:
Invested
$124.16
Value
$149.27
PnL
+$25.11
Record
66%
98635-51024 (149659)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$8.36
Value
β
PnL
-$8.36
Record
46%
37887-44532 (82419)
Invested
$17.02
Value
β
PnL
-$17.02
Record
58%
37375-26622 (63997)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$7.92
Value
β
PnL
-$7.92
Record
49%
77593-80930 (158523)
Invested
$12.01
Value
β
PnL
-$12.01
Record
58%
60123-43891 (104014)
Invested
$13.1
Value
$19.69
PnL
+$6.59
Record
65%
124286-66473 (190759)
Invested
$11.37
Value
$19.43
PnL
+$8.06
Record
61%
93968-59068 (153036)
Invested
$13.1
Value
$39.7
PnL
+$26.6
Record
57%
69881-53093 (122974)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$10.42
PnL
+$3.22
Record
52%
89418-83862 (173280)
Invested
$7.9
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.1
Record
56%
57594-44483 (102077)
Invested
$5.7
Value
β
PnL
-$5.7
Record
55%
17284-13893 (31177)
Invested
$8.09
Value
$12.24
PnL
+$4.15
Record
66%
124478-64082 (188560)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$9.24
PnL
+$6.19
Record
51%
19791-18936 (38727)
Invested
$10.68
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0.29
Record
65%
21722-11935 (33657)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded
Bonereaper
Up β $149.27

pspspsps5
CTRDown β $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown β $0

OhioRiskManagement
CTRDown β $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRDown β $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Up β $19.69
asidjasiodja
Up β $19.43
uninformedfloww
Up β $39.7
dvasdkasodk
Up β $10.42