Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 82%
2 arb excluded
$920.36
$84.18
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 96.1¢ | $377.52 | $392.79 | +$15.27 | 66% 98635-51024 (149659) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 28.9¢ | $234.34 | $202.66 | -$31.69 | 51% 6829-6526 (13355) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.4¢ | $77.82 | $202.66 | +$124.84 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.9¢ | $156.53 | — | -$156.53 | |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 82.4¢ | $261.14 | $174.99 | -$86.15 | 57% 69881-53093 (122974) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.1¢ | $92.9 | $174.99 | +$82.1 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 82.4¢ | $168.25 | — | -$168.25 | |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $3.52 | — | -$3.52 | 52% 89418-83862 (173280) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 21.6¢ | $9.79 | $25.44 | +$15.64 | 55% 44030-36522 (80552) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 21.6¢ | $4.01 | $11.34 | +$7.33 | 61% 93968-59068 (153036) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $13.49 | $10 | -$3.49 | 62% 43587-26530 (70117) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 37.4¢ | $9.48 | $25.37 | +$15.89 | 49% 77593-80930 (158523) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 35¢ | $12 | $34.3 | +$22.3 | 46% 37887-44532 (82419) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 34.2¢ | $9.4 | $27.47 | +$18.07 | 55% 17284-13893 (31177) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $7.8 | $10 | +$2.2 | 64% 39724-22691 (62415) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $11.22 | $6 | -$5.22 | 66% 124478-64082 (188560) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $0.3 | — | -$0.3 | 65% 21722-11935 (33657) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19791-18936 (38727) |
Invested
$377.52
Value
$392.79
PnL
+$15.27
Record
66%
98635-51024 (149659)
Invested
$234.34
Value
$202.66
PnL
-$31.69
Record
51%
6829-6526 (13355)
Both legs:
Invested
$261.14
Value
$174.99
PnL
-$86.15
Record
57%
69881-53093 (122974)
Both legs:
Invested
$3.52
Value
—
PnL
-$3.52
Record
52%
89418-83862 (173280)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$9.79
Value
$25.44
PnL
+$15.64
Record
55%
44030-36522 (80552)
Invested
$4.01
Value
$11.34
PnL
+$7.33
Record
61%
93968-59068 (153036)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$13.49
Value
$10
PnL
-$3.49
Record
62%
43587-26530 (70117)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$9.48
Value
$25.37
PnL
+$15.89
Record
49%
77593-80930 (158523)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$12
Value
$34.3
PnL
+$22.3
Record
46%
37887-44532 (82419)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$27.47
PnL
+$18.07
Record
55%
17284-13893 (31177)
ohioism<$100Invested
$7.8
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.2
Record
64%
39724-22691 (62415)
Invested
$11.22
Value
$6
PnL
-$5.22
Record
66%
124478-64082 (188560)
Invested
$0.3
Value
—
PnL
-$0.3
Record
65%
21722-11935 (33657)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19791-18936 (38727)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Down — $392.79
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dvasdkasodk
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
Down — $25.44
asidjasiodja
Down — $11.34
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $10
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $25.37
pspspsps5
Down — $34.3
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $27.47