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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Down 36%

Total Value

$674.12

Combined PnL

-$220.2

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 15 top traders (33%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares424

Combined PnL-$367.77

Up10 traders

Total Value$674.12

Total Shares674

Combined PnL+$147.57

Down — 33%Up — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2CTR	Downavg 58.4¢	$332.52	—	-$332.52	51% 6811-6496 (13307)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 50.4¢	$306.66	$352.41	+$45.75	57% 69844-53054 (122898)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Upavg 99¢	$88.99	$89.89	+$0.9	66% 98615-51003 (149618)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 58.7¢	$28.99	$38.16	+$9.18	65% 21685-11906 (33591)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 40.5¢	$23.5	$34.2	+$11.51	65% 124252-66451 (190703)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 59¢	$19	—	-$19	62% 43581-26510 (70091)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 28.9¢	$14.22	—	-$14.22	55% 44030-36522 (80552)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 47.2¢	$9.99	$14.06	+$4.07	61% 93938-59036 (152974)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 46.8¢	$24.98	$53.38	+$28.39	56% 57585-44462 (102047)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 93¢	$13.7	$10	-$3.7	66% 124477-64080 (188557)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 32.9¢	$23.25	$56.85	+$33.6	55% 17240-13879 (31119)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 29¢	$7.3	$25.18	+$17.88	64% 39715-22682 (62397)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Downavg 53¢	$21.24	—	+$3.26	59% 21804-15144 (36948)
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100	Downavg 53¢	$5.3	—	-$5.3	54% 10430-8903 (19333)
DE devonpoll<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	51% 19772-18923 (38695)

Invested

$332.52

Value

—

PnL

-$332.52

Record

51%

6811-6496 (13307)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$306.66

Value

$352.41

PnL

+$45.75

Record

57%

69844-53054 (122898)

Bonereaper<$100

Invested

$88.99

Value

$89.89

PnL

+$0.9

Record

66%

98615-51003 (149618)

Invested

$28.99

Value

$38.16

PnL

+$9.18

Record

65%

21685-11906 (33591)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$23.5

Value

$34.2

PnL

+$11.51

Record

65%

124252-66451 (190703)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$19

Value

—

PnL

-$19

Record

62%

43581-26510 (70091)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$14.22

Value

—

PnL

-$14.22

Record

55%

44030-36522 (80552)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$14.06

PnL

+$4.07

Record

61%

93938-59036 (152974)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$24.98

Value

$53.38

PnL

+$28.39

Record

56%

57585-44462 (102047)

Invested

$13.7

Value

$10

PnL

-$3.7

Record

66%

124477-64080 (188557)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$23.25

Value

$56.85

PnL

+$33.6

Record

55%

17240-13879 (31119)

Invested

$7.3

Value

$25.18

PnL

+$17.88

Record

64%

39715-22682 (62397)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$21.24

Value

—

PnL

+$3.26

Record

59%

21804-15144 (36948)

thesidehustleCTR<$100

Invested

$5.3

Value

—

PnL

-$5.3

Record

54%

10430-8903 (19333)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

19772-18923 (38695)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 15 top traders (33%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xdb9cefa0...2f5421

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1793203800

Traders in this Market

ply-pm2

Down — $0

uninformedfloww

Up — $352.41

Bonereaper

Up — $89.89

aaa221

Up — $38.16

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $34.2

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $0

MayorMamdani

Down — $0

asidjasiodja

Up — $14.06

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $53.38

asdaefef

Up — $10

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