Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$6.32
Smart Money Signal
9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $501.96 | $507.03 | +$5.07 | 93% 22581-1734 (24315) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 40.7¢ | $274.24 | $399.28 | +$125.04 | 51% 6811-6496 (13307) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.1¢ | $111.73 | — | -$111.73 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.7¢ | $162.51 | $399.28 | +$236.77 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 73.4¢ | $150.75 | — | -$150.75 | 57% 69844-53054 (122898) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 31.7¢ | $52.51 | $70.23 | +$87.94 | 59% 21804-15144 (36948) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $60.51 | $99.99 | +$39.49 | 58% 37375-26622 (63997) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 23.4¢ | $11.31 | — | -$11.31 | 55% 44030-36522 (80552) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.4¢ | $25.64 | — | -$2.31 | 54% 10430-8903 (19333) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 76.6¢ | $23.66 | — | -$23.66 | 61% 93938-59036 (152974) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 33.1¢ | $8.36 | $25.28 | +$16.92 | 62% 43581-26510 (70091) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 75.6¢ | $6.19 | — | -$6.19 | 65% 21685-11906 (33591) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $5 | $10 | +$5 | 65% 124252-66451 (190703) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $5 | $10 | +$5 | 56% 57585-44462 (102047) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $4.34 | $18.87 | +$14.53 | 49% 77576-80896 (158472) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $4.54 | $13.34 | +$8.8 | 74% 102137-36314 (138451) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 37.9¢ | $4.92 | $12.98 | +$8.06 | 52% 89386-83832 (173218) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 29¢ | $2.9 | — | -$2.9 | 55% 17240-13879 (31119) |
Invested
$501.96
Value
$507.03
PnL
+$5.07
Record
93%
22581-1734 (24315)
Invested
$274.24
Value
$399.28
PnL
+$125.04
Record
51%
6811-6496 (13307)
Both legs:
Invested
$150.75
Value
—
PnL
-$150.75
Record
57%
69844-53054 (122898)
Invested
$52.51
Value
$70.23
PnL
+$87.94
Record
59%
21804-15144 (36948)
Invested
$60.51
Value
$99.99
PnL
+$39.49
Record
58%
37375-26622 (63997)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$11.31
Value
—
PnL
-$11.31
Record
55%
44030-36522 (80552)
Invested
$25.64
Value
—
PnL
-$2.31
Record
54%
10430-8903 (19333)
Invested
$23.66
Value
—
PnL
-$23.66
Record
61%
93938-59036 (152974)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$8.36
Value
$25.28
PnL
+$16.92
Record
62%
43581-26510 (70091)
Invested
$6.19
Value
—
PnL
-$6.19
Record
65%
21685-11906 (33591)
Invested
$5
Value
$10
PnL
+$5
Record
65%
124252-66451 (190703)
Invested
$5
Value
$10
PnL
+$5
Record
56%
57585-44462 (102047)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$4.34
Value
$18.87
PnL
+$14.53
Record
49%
77576-80896 (158472)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$4.54
Value
$13.34
PnL
+$8.8
Record
74%
102137-36314 (138451)
Invested
$4.92
Value
$12.98
PnL
+$8.06
Record
52%
89386-83832 (173218)
Invested
$2.9
Value
—
PnL
-$2.9
Record
55%
17240-13879 (31119)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $507.03
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
rabadabadoo
Down — $70.23
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $99.99
MayorMamdani
CTRUp — $0
thesidehustle
CTRUp — $0
asidjasiodja
CTRUp — $0
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $25.28
aaa221
CTRUp — $0