Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Up β but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
12
Up 55%
3 arb excluded
$548.7
-$122.52
Smart Money Signal
7 of 12 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 31.5Β’ | $276.02 | $310.24 | +$34.22 | 51% 6762-6452 (13214) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 31.5Β’ | $183.43 | β | -$183.43 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 29.8Β’ | $92.58 | $310.24 | +$217.65 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99Β’ | $72.65 | $73.38 | +$0.73 | 93% 22538-1732 (24270) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100 | Downavg 53.9Β’ | $66.5 | $75.17 | +$8.67 | 55% 17202-13832 (31034) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 53.9Β’ | $40.55 | $75.17 | +$34.62 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 40.2Β’ | $25.95 | β | -$25.95 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 44Β’ | $64.02 | β | -$64.02 | 57% 69767-53019 (122786) |
TH thesidehustleARB<$100 | Upavg 41.7Β’ | $50.57 | $41.29 | -$9.28 | 54% 10390-8862 (19252) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 41.7Β’ | $29.2 | β | -$29.2 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 51.8Β’ | $21.37 | $41.29 | +$19.92 | |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 70.1Β’ | $53.98 | β | -$53.98 | 65% 21587-11860 (33447) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 6.6Β’ | $4.09 | β | -$4.09 | 62% 43572-26500 (70072) |
![]() UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 47.3Β’ | $8.73 | $13.56 | +$4.83 | 63% 51166-30114 (81280) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 44.2Β’ | $17.51 | β | -$17.51 | 66% 111532-57780 (169312) |
![]() OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 31Β’ | $8.36 | β | -$8.36 | 49% 77541-80829 (158370) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 17.9Β’ | $3.49 | $19.54 | +$16.05 | 61% 93853-58992 (152845) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 19Β’ | $2 | $10.53 | +$8.53 | 52% 89316-83776 (173092) |
![]() pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 33Β’ | $3.89 | β | -$3.89 | 46% 37858-44441 (82299) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 81Β’ | $5.81 | $5 | -$0.81 | 65% 124010-66298 (190308) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 46Β’ | β | β | +$0 | 51% 19757-18903 (38660) |
Invested
$276.02
Value
$310.24
PnL
+$34.22
Record
51%
6762-6452 (13214)
Both legs:
Invested
$72.65
Value
$73.38
PnL
+$0.73
Record
93%
22538-1732 (24270)
Invested
$66.5
Value
$75.17
PnL
+$8.67
Record
55%
17202-13832 (31034)
Both legs:
Invested
$64.02
Value
β
PnL
-$64.02
Record
57%
69767-53019 (122786)
Invested
$50.57
Value
$41.29
PnL
-$9.28
Record
54%
10390-8862 (19252)
Both legs:
Invested
$53.98
Value
β
PnL
-$53.98
Record
65%
21587-11860 (33447)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$4.09
Value
β
PnL
-$4.09
Record
62%
43572-26500 (70072)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$8.73
Value
$13.56
PnL
+$4.83
Record
63%
51166-30114 (81280)
Invested
$17.51
Value
β
PnL
-$17.51
Record
66%
111532-57780 (169312)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$8.36
Value
β
PnL
-$8.36
Record
49%
77541-80829 (158370)
Invested
$3.49
Value
$19.54
PnL
+$16.05
Record
61%
93853-58992 (152845)
Invested
$2
Value
$10.53
PnL
+$8.53
Record
52%
89316-83776 (173092)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$3.89
Value
β
PnL
-$3.89
Record
46%
37858-44441 (82299)
Invested
$5.81
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.81
Record
65%
124010-66298 (190308)
Invested
β
Value
β
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19757-18903 (38660)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded
hoodquant
Down β $73.38
Kathod-Shi-14
ARBArbitrage β excluded
uninformedfloww
CTRUp β $0
thesidehustle
ARBArbitrage β excluded
aaa221
CTRUp β $0

G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp β $0

UpandDownSyndrome
Down β $13.56
antsaslyku
CTRUp β $0

OhioRiskManagement
CTRUp β $0