Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$760.15
-$2.23
Smart Money Signal
10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 3.7¢ | $10.99 | — | -$10.99 | 48% 23052-25114 (48166) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.7¢ | $4.98 | — | -$4.98 | 46% 37858-44441 (82299) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 87¢ | $204.22 | $234.8 | +$30.58 | 57% 69767-53019 (122786) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 3.1¢ | $6.96 | — | -$6.96 | 49% 77541-80829 (158370) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 12.9¢ | $35.76 | — | -$35.76 | 51% 6762-6452 (13214) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.8¢ | $199.09 | $203.67 | +$4.58 | 93% 22538-1732 (24270) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Downavg 64.5¢ | $66.1 | $100.11 | +$34 | 58% 60094-43864 (103958) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.5¢ | $64.58 | $100.11 | +$35.52 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 3¢ | $1.52 | — | -$1.52 | |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.8¢ | $39.93 | $40 | +$0.07 | 59% 61960-42991 (104951) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 90.7¢ | $45.51 | $50.18 | +$4.67 | 64% 39705-22669 (62374) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $27.89 | $35.59 | +$7.7 | 61% 93853-58992 (152845) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $41.3 | $30 | -$8.3 | 65% 124010-66298 (190308) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 44.9¢ | $17.23 | $38.38 | +$21.15 | 58% 50774-36908 (87682) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $11.47 | — | -$11.47 | 56% 57551-44443 (101994) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 76.7¢ | $11.14 | $14.53 | +$3.39 | 52% 89316-83776 (173092) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 93.2¢ | $28.01 | $9.17 | +$1.82 | 65% 21587-11860 (33447) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $1.45 | $3.72 | +$2.27 | 55% 17202-13832 (31034) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19757-18903 (38660) |
Invested
$10.99
Value
—
PnL
-$10.99
Record
48%
23052-25114 (48166)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$4.98
Value
—
PnL
-$4.98
Record
46%
37858-44441 (82299)
Invested
$204.22
Value
$234.8
PnL
+$30.58
Record
57%
69767-53019 (122786)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$6.96
Value
—
PnL
-$6.96
Record
49%
77541-80829 (158370)
Invested
$35.76
Value
—
PnL
-$35.76
Record
51%
6762-6452 (13214)
Invested
$199.09
Value
$203.67
PnL
+$4.58
Record
93%
22538-1732 (24270)
Invested
$66.1
Value
$100.11
PnL
+$34
Record
58%
60094-43864 (103958)
Both legs:
Invested
$39.93
Value
$40
PnL
+$0.07
Record
59%
61960-42991 (104951)
ohioism<$100Invested
$45.51
Value
$50.18
PnL
+$4.67
Record
64%
39705-22669 (62374)
Invested
$27.89
Value
$35.59
PnL
+$7.7
Record
61%
93853-58992 (152845)
Invested
$41.3
Value
$30
PnL
-$8.3
Record
65%
124010-66298 (190308)
Invested
$17.23
Value
$38.38
PnL
+$21.15
Record
58%
50774-36908 (87682)
Invested
$11.47
Value
—
PnL
-$11.47
Record
56%
57551-44443 (101994)
Invested
$11.14
Value
$14.53
PnL
+$3.39
Record
52%
89316-83776 (173092)
Invested
$28.01
Value
$9.17
PnL
+$1.82
Record
65%
21587-11860 (33447)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$3.72
PnL
+$2.27
Record
55%
17202-13832 (31034)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19757-18903 (38660)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
CTRUp — $0
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $234.8
OhioRiskManagement
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $203.67
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x50f7
Down — $40
ohioism
Down — $50.18
asidjasiodja
Down — $35.59