Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
6
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$202.21
-$5.36
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 72.3¢ | $179.52 | $180.05 | +$0.54 | 51% 6745-6431 (13176) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 72.3¢ | $130.24 | $180.05 | +$49.81 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44¢ | $49.27 | — | -$49.27 | |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 9.9¢ | $4.29 | — | -$4.29 | 49% 77513-80805 (158318) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $11.69 | $12.05 | +$0.36 | 61% 93803-58969 (152772) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $9.3 | $10.11 | +$0.81 | 51% 19747-18896 (38643) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 1.8¢ | $5.42 | — | -$5.42 | 46% 37841-44422 (82263) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 28¢ | $15.07 | — | +$3.23 | 65% 21538-11836 (33374) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 111508-57758 (169266) |
Invested
$179.52
Value
$180.05
PnL
+$0.54
Record
51%
6745-6431 (13176)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$4.29
Value
—
PnL
-$4.29
Record
49%
77513-80805 (158318)
Invested
$11.69
Value
$12.05
PnL
+$0.36
Record
61%
93803-58969 (152772)
Invested
$9.3
Value
$10.11
PnL
+$0.81
Record
51%
19747-18896 (38643)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$5.42
Value
—
PnL
-$5.42
Record
46%
37841-44422 (82263)
Invested
$15.07
Value
—
PnL
+$3.23
Record
65%
21538-11836 (33374)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
111508-57758 (169266)
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