Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
8
Down 63%
1 arb excluded
$414.33
$15.93
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $126.12 | $143.5 | +$17.37 | 51% 6745-6431 (13176) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58¢ | $83.17 | $143.5 | +$60.32 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.6¢ | $42.95 | — | -$42.95 | |
HS Hsilverbasher | Downavg 99¢ | $165.75 | $167.42 | +$1.67 | 12% 17971-132774 (150745) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $30.69 | $37.24 | +$6.55 | 49% 77513-80805 (158318) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 42.3¢ | $20.36 | $29.46 | +$9.1 | 54% 10339-8830 (19169) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 42.2¢ | $32.7 | — | -$9.02 | 65% 21538-11836 (33374) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 82.7¢ | $21.83 | $26.41 | +$4.58 | 61% 93803-58969 (152772) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $0.3 | — | -$0.3 | 59% 61952-42970 (104922) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 42.2¢ | $4.35 | $10.31 | +$5.96 | 55% 17200-13832 (31032) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 26¢ | $2.6 | — | -$2.6 | 51% 19747-18896 (38643) |
Invested
$126.12
Value
$143.5
PnL
+$17.37
Record
51%
6745-6431 (13176)
Both legs:
Invested
$165.75
Value
$167.42
PnL
+$1.67
Record
12%
17971-132774 (150745)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$30.69
Value
$37.24
PnL
+$6.55
Record
49%
77513-80805 (158318)
Invested
$20.36
Value
$29.46
PnL
+$9.1
Record
54%
10339-8830 (19169)
Invested
$32.7
Value
—
PnL
-$9.02
Record
65%
21538-11836 (33374)
Invested
$21.83
Value
$26.41
PnL
+$4.58
Record
61%
93803-58969 (152772)
Invested
$0.3
Value
—
PnL
-$0.3
Record
59%
61952-42970 (104922)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$10.31
PnL
+$5.96
Record
55%
17200-13832 (31032)
Invested
$2.6
Value
—
PnL
-$2.6
Record
51%
19747-18896 (38643)
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