Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
9
Up 57%
1 arb excluded
$130.52
-$0.34
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 1.8¢ | $6.23 | — | -$6.23 | 49% 77489-80776 (158265) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 88.7¢ | $71.63 | $70.08 | -$1.55 | 51% 6717-6412 (13129) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 10.4¢ | $9.45 | — | -$9.45 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 88.7¢ | $62.18 | $70.08 | +$7.9 | |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $1.4 | — | -$1.4 | 46% 37827-44398 (82225) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 94.4¢ | $30.58 | $32.39 | +$1.81 | 61% 93762-58955 (152717) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $19.2 | $20 | +$0.8 | 57% 69652-52957 (122609) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 15¢ | $1.5 | — | -$1.5 | 54% 10336-8828 (19164) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $7.76 | $8 | +$0.24 | 52% 89240-83721 (172961) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 111485-57735 (169220) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 85.1¢ | $36.64 | $0.04 | +$5.98 | 65% 21488-11804 (33292) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19736-18893 (38629) |
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$6.23
Value
—
PnL
-$6.23
Record
49%
77489-80776 (158265)
Invested
$71.63
Value
$70.08
PnL
-$1.55
Record
51%
6717-6412 (13129)
Both legs:
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.4
Value
—
PnL
-$1.4
Record
46%
37827-44398 (82225)
Invested
$30.58
Value
$32.39
PnL
+$1.81
Record
61%
93762-58955 (152717)
Invested
$19.2
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.8
Record
57%
69652-52957 (122609)
Invested
$1.5
Value
—
PnL
-$1.5
Record
54%
10336-8828 (19164)
Invested
$7.76
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.24
Record
52%
89240-83721 (172961)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
111485-57735 (169220)
Invested
$36.64
Value
$0.04
PnL
+$5.98
Record
65%
21488-11804 (33292)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19736-18893 (38629)
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