Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
9
Down 67%
2 arb excluded
$1.2K
$10.32
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $793.86 | $810 | +$16.14 | 93% 22483-1729 (24212) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 87.9¢ | $238.4 | $213.5 | -$24.9 | 51% 6701-6393 (13094) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 4.5¢ | $50.76 | — | -$50.76 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 87.9¢ | $187.63 | $213.5 | +$25.87 | |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 64.1¢ | $144.1 | $125.69 | -$18.41 | 57% 69604-52928 (122532) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.1¢ | $80.6 | $125.69 | +$45.09 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66.7¢ | $63.5 | — | -$63.5 | |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $17.76 | $17.94 | +$0.18 | 63% 51064-30076 (81140) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 98.7¢ | $15.84 | $16.05 | +$0.21 | 61% 93726-58934 (152660) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 85.1¢ | $11.63 | $13.67 | +$2.04 | 66% 124340-64008 (188348) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $10.71 | — | -$10.71 | 12% 17934-132761 (150695) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $6 | $12.24 | +$6.24 | 49% 77469-80748 (158217) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 19.3¢ | $6.63 | — | -$6.63 | 55% 43943-36416 (80359) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $4.52 | $7.41 | +$2.89 | 65% 21441-11773 (33214) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 111454-57709 (169163) |
Invested
$793.86
Value
$810
PnL
+$16.14
Record
93%
22483-1729 (24212)
Invested
$238.4
Value
$213.5
PnL
-$24.9
Record
51%
6701-6393 (13094)
Both legs:
Invested
$144.1
Value
$125.69
PnL
-$18.41
Record
57%
69604-52928 (122532)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$17.76
Value
$17.94
PnL
+$0.18
Record
63%
51064-30076 (81140)
Invested
$15.84
Value
$16.05
PnL
+$0.21
Record
61%
93726-58934 (152660)
Invested
$11.63
Value
$13.67
PnL
+$2.04
Record
66%
124340-64008 (188348)
Invested
$10.71
Value
—
PnL
-$10.71
Record
12%
17934-132761 (150695)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$6
Value
$12.24
PnL
+$6.24
Record
49%
77469-80748 (158217)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$6.63
Value
—
PnL
-$6.63
Record
55%
43943-36416 (80359)
Invested
$4.52
Value
$7.41
PnL
+$2.89
Record
65%
21441-11773 (33214)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
111454-57709 (169163)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $810
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $17.94
asidjasiodja
Down — $16.05
asdaefef
Down — $13.67
Hsilverbasher
CTRUp — $0
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $12.24
MayorMamdani
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $7.41