Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
12
Up 55%
$334.93
-$4.41
Smart Money Signal
7 of 12 top traders (58%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 39.9¢ | $119.89 | $228.63 | +$108.74 | 51% 6623-6322 (12945) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 93.9¢ | $56.88 | $49 | -$7.88 | 61% 93655-58890 (152545) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 39.9¢ | $21.07 | — | -$21.07 | 55% 43897-36336 (80233) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 84.4¢ | $33.76 | $31.1 | -$2.66 | 57% 69319-52768 (122087) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $54.69 | — | -$49.64 | 65% 21160-11608 (32768) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $16.94 | $16 | -$0.94 | 52% 89153-83609 (172762) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $16.75 | — | -$16.75 | 66% 98450-50905 (149355) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.5¢ | $12.54 | — | -$12.54 | 66% 111403-57662 (169065) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 81.2¢ | $8.28 | $10.2 | +$1.92 | 66% 124265-63963 (188228) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 12¢ | $2.71 | — | -$2.71 | 63% 50924-30036 (80960) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 29¢ | $0.87 | — | -$0.87 | 64% 39652-22624 (62276) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19712-18874 (38586) |
Invested
$119.89
Value
$228.63
PnL
+$108.74
Record
51%
6623-6322 (12945)
Invested
$56.88
Value
$49
PnL
-$7.88
Record
61%
93655-58890 (152545)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$21.07
Value
—
PnL
-$21.07
Record
55%
43897-36336 (80233)
Invested
$33.76
Value
$31.1
PnL
-$2.66
Record
57%
69319-52768 (122087)
Invested
$54.69
Value
—
PnL
-$49.64
Record
65%
21160-11608 (32768)
Invested
$16.94
Value
$16
PnL
-$0.94
Record
52%
89153-83609 (172762)
Invested
$16.75
Value
—
PnL
-$16.75
Record
66%
98450-50905 (149355)
Invested
$12.54
Value
—
PnL
-$12.54
Record
66%
111403-57662 (169065)
Invested
$8.28
Value
$10.2
PnL
+$1.92
Record
66%
124265-63963 (188228)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$2.71
Value
—
PnL
-$2.71
Record
63%
50924-30036 (80960)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$0.87
Value
—
PnL
-$0.87
Record
64%
39652-22624 (62276)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19712-18874 (38586)
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