Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
10
Up 70%
$39.77
-$79.98
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 26.6¢ | $68.87 | — | -$68.87 | 51% 6623-6322 (12945) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 84.5¢ | $15.89 | $18.81 | +$2.92 | 61% 93655-58890 (152545) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $8 | $10.66 | +$2.66 | 66% 124265-63963 (188228) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 68.5¢ | $7.05 | $10.3 | +$3.25 | 52% 89153-83609 (172762) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 20.8¢ | $7.08 | — | -$7.08 | 65% 21160-11608 (32768) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 7.8¢ | $9.25 | — | -$9.25 | 55% 43897-36336 (80233) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $2.65 | — | -$2.65 | 66% 98450-50905 (149355) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $0.48 | — | -$0.48 | 46% 37796-44311 (82107) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $0.42 | — | -$0.42 | 59% 61913-42908 (104821) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 111403-57662 (169065) |
Invested
$68.87
Value
—
PnL
-$68.87
Record
51%
6623-6322 (12945)
Invested
$15.89
Value
$18.81
PnL
+$2.92
Record
61%
93655-58890 (152545)
Invested
$8
Value
$10.66
PnL
+$2.66
Record
66%
124265-63963 (188228)
Invested
$7.05
Value
$10.3
PnL
+$3.25
Record
52%
89153-83609 (172762)
Invested
$7.08
Value
—
PnL
-$7.08
Record
65%
21160-11608 (32768)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$9.25
Value
—
PnL
-$9.25
Record
55%
43897-36336 (80233)
Invested
$2.65
Value
—
PnL
-$2.65
Record
66%
98450-50905 (149355)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.48
Value
—
PnL
-$0.48
Record
46%
37796-44311 (82107)
Invested
$0.42
Value
—
PnL
-$0.42
Record
59%
61913-42908 (104821)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
111403-57662 (169065)
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