Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Up β but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
11
Up 64%
1 arb excluded
$298.82
-$57.56
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 54.2Β’ | $156.51 | $150.67 | -$5.85 | 51% 6623-6322 (12945) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 25.5Β’ | $74.78 | β | -$74.78 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 54.2Β’ | $81.74 | $150.67 | +$68.93 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99Β’ | $74.25 | $75 | +$0.75 | 93% 22430-1725 (24155) |
![]() UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 60Β’ | $25.34 | $40.58 | +$15.24 | 63% 50924-30036 (80960) |
![]() MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 57.5Β’ | $20.57 | $27.58 | +$7.01 | 55% 43897-36336 (80233) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 64Β’ | $29.25 | β | -$29.25 | 57% 69319-52768 (122087) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 46Β’ | $17.17 | β | -$17.17 | 65% 21160-11608 (32768) |
![]() OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 56Β’ | $20.16 | β | -$20.16 | 49% 77370-80568 (157938) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 60Β’ | $6.2 | β | -$6.2 | 51% 19712-18874 (38586) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 69Β’ | $3.85 | β | -$3.85 | 66% 124265-63963 (188228) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 52Β’ | $2.73 | β | -$2.73 | 66% 98450-50905 (149355) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 69Β’ | $3.55 | β | -$3.55 | 61% 93655-58890 (152545) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 53Β’ | $2.65 | $5 | +$2.35 | 12% 17911-132734 (150645) |
Invested
$156.51
Value
$150.67
PnL
-$5.85
Record
51%
6623-6322 (12945)
Both legs:
Invested
$74.25
Value
$75
PnL
+$0.75
Record
93%
22430-1725 (24155)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$25.34
Value
$40.58
PnL
+$15.24
Record
63%
50924-30036 (80960)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$20.57
Value
$27.58
PnL
+$7.01
Record
55%
43897-36336 (80233)
Invested
$29.25
Value
β
PnL
-$29.25
Record
57%
69319-52768 (122087)
Invested
$17.17
Value
β
PnL
-$17.17
Record
65%
21160-11608 (32768)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$20.16
Value
β
PnL
-$20.16
Record
49%
77370-80568 (157938)
Invested
$6.2
Value
β
PnL
-$6.2
Record
51%
19712-18874 (38586)
Invested
$3.85
Value
β
PnL
-$3.85
Record
66%
124265-63963 (188228)
Invested
$2.73
Value
β
PnL
-$2.73
Record
66%
98450-50905 (149355)
Invested
$3.55
Value
β
PnL
-$3.55
Record
61%
93655-58890 (152545)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.35
Record
12%
17911-132734 (150645)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded
hoodquant
Down β $75

UpandDownSyndrome
Down β $40.58

MayorMamdani
Down β $27.58
uninformedfloww
CTRUp β $0
aaa221
CTRUp β $0

OhioRiskManagement
CTRUp β $0
devonpoll
CTRUp β $0
asdaefef
CTRUp β $0
Bonereaper
CTRUp β $0