Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
10
Down 80%
$39.32
-$48.47
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 10.7¢ | $6.82 | — | -$6.82 | 49% 77370-80568 (157938) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 65.1¢ | $26.31 | — | -$26.31 | 51% 6623-6322 (12945) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 85.6¢ | $27.86 | $28.16 | +$0.3 | 61% 93655-58890 (152545) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $4.72 | — | -$4.72 | 46% 37796-44311 (82107) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 89.3¢ | $9.97 | $11.16 | +$1.19 | 66% 124265-63963 (188228) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $4.93 | — | -$4.93 | 65% 21160-11608 (32768) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $2.5 | — | -$2.5 | 66% 98450-50905 (149355) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $3.7 | — | -$3.7 | 57% 69319-52768 (122087) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $0.72 | — | -$0.72 | 59% 61913-42908 (104821) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $0.27 | — | -$0.27 | 55% 43897-36336 (80233) |
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$6.82
Value
—
PnL
-$6.82
Record
49%
77370-80568 (157938)
Invested
$26.31
Value
—
PnL
-$26.31
Record
51%
6623-6322 (12945)
Invested
$27.86
Value
$28.16
PnL
+$0.3
Record
61%
93655-58890 (152545)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$4.72
Value
—
PnL
-$4.72
Record
46%
37796-44311 (82107)
Invested
$9.97
Value
$11.16
PnL
+$1.19
Record
66%
124265-63963 (188228)
Invested
$4.93
Value
—
PnL
-$4.93
Record
65%
21160-11608 (32768)
Invested
$2.5
Value
—
PnL
-$2.5
Record
66%
98450-50905 (149355)
Invested
$3.7
Value
—
PnL
-$3.7
Record
57%
69319-52768 (122087)
Invested
$0.72
Value
—
PnL
-$0.72
Record
59%
61913-42908 (104821)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.27
Value
—
PnL
-$0.27
Record
55%
43897-36336 (80233)
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