Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
15
Up 36%
1 arb excluded
$319.73
-$209.2
Smart Money Signal
6 of 15 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 16.8¢ | $81.81 | $83.56 | +$1.76 | 51% 6539-6233 (12772) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16.8¢ | $47.3 | — | -$47.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.3¢ | $34.51 | $83.56 | +$49.06 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $74.21 | — | -$74.21 | 56% 57437-44370 (101807) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $70.63 | $84.08 | +$13.45 | 48% 22972-25014 (47986) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $58.62 | — | -$58.62 | 64% 39618-22602 (62220) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $34.1 | — | -$34.1 | 65% 123835-66215 (190050) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 74.7¢ | $22.59 | $25.79 | +$3.2 | 55% 43796-36217 (80013) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $11.4 | $30 | +$18.6 | 54% 10215-8684 (18899) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 16¢ | $12.75 | — | +$8.79 | 65% 20975-11511 (32486) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 74.9¢ | $23.48 | $26.02 | +$2.54 | 66% 124118-63886 (188004) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 56.2¢ | $14.69 | $17.25 | +$2.56 | 66% 98405-50847 (149252) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $21.49 | $25.28 | +$3.79 | 74% 102017-36283 (138300) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 73.8¢ | $14.48 | $19.63 | +$5.15 | 61% 93527-58804 (152331) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $4.45 | $5.24 | +$0.79 | 52% 89030-83502 (172532) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $1.35 | $2.88 | +$1.53 | 58% 59994-43795 (103789) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 69.3¢ | $102.67 | — | -$102.67 | 57% 69255-52722 (121977) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19680-18843 (38523) |
Invested
$81.81
Value
$83.56
PnL
+$1.76
Record
51%
6539-6233 (12772)
Both legs:
Invested
$74.21
Value
—
PnL
-$74.21
Record
56%
57437-44370 (101807)
Invested
$70.63
Value
$84.08
PnL
+$13.45
Record
48%
22972-25014 (47986)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$58.62
Value
—
PnL
-$58.62
Record
64%
39618-22602 (62220)
Invested
$34.1
Value
—
PnL
-$34.1
Record
65%
123835-66215 (190050)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$22.59
Value
$25.79
PnL
+$3.2
Record
55%
43796-36217 (80013)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$30
PnL
+$18.6
Record
54%
10215-8684 (18899)
Invested
$12.75
Value
—
PnL
+$8.79
Record
65%
20975-11511 (32486)
Invested
$23.48
Value
$26.02
PnL
+$2.54
Record
66%
124118-63886 (188004)
Invested
$14.69
Value
$17.25
PnL
+$2.56
Record
66%
98405-50847 (149252)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$21.49
Value
$25.28
PnL
+$3.79
Record
74%
102017-36283 (138300)
Invested
$14.48
Value
$19.63
PnL
+$5.15
Record
61%
93527-58804 (152331)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$5.24
PnL
+$0.79
Record
52%
89030-83502 (172532)
Invested
$1.35
Value
$2.88
PnL
+$1.53
Record
58%
59994-43795 (103789)
Invested
$102.67
Value
—
PnL
-$102.67
Record
57%
69255-52722 (121977)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19680-18843 (38523)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
Down — $84.08
ohioism
CTRUp — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
Down — $25.79
thesidehustle
Down — $30
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $26.02
Bonereaper
Down — $17.25