Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 82%
1 arb excluded
$596.2
$174.04
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.4¢ | $215.71 | $219.21 | +$3.5 | 93% 22322-1716 (24038) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 21.1¢ | $14.48 | $66.58 | +$52.1 | 46% 37743-44179 (81922) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 78.6¢ | $45.91 | $57.19 | +$11.28 | 55% 43758-36180 (79938) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $49.57 | $50 | +$0.43 | 64% 57374-32152 (89526) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 23.6¢ | $11.8 | $50 | +$38.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63¢ | $37.77 | — | -$37.77 | |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 21.6¢ | $22.57 | $104.58 | +$82.01 | 51% 6507-6200 (12707) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 39.9¢ | $14.6 | $36.58 | +$21.98 | 56% 57417-44359 (101776) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 74.8¢ | $22.93 | $27.3 | +$4.37 | 61% 93493-58782 (152275) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 38.3¢ | $21.84 | — | -$21.84 | 58% 37308-26476 (63784) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 88.5¢ | $9.3 | $10.5 | +$1.2 | 66% 124076-63863 (187939) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 36¢ | $6.16 | $17.11 | +$10.95 | 58% 59979-43785 (103764) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $6.44 | $7.16 | +$0.72 | 52% 88990-83472 (172462) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 64.3¢ | $43.5 | — | +$7.76 | 65% 20906-11464 (32370) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19668-18828 (38496) |
Invested
$215.71
Value
$219.21
PnL
+$3.5
Record
93%
22322-1716 (24038)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$14.48
Value
$66.58
PnL
+$52.1
Record
46%
37743-44179 (81922)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$45.91
Value
$57.19
PnL
+$11.28
Record
55%
43758-36180 (79938)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$49.57
Value
$50
PnL
+$0.43
Record
64%
57374-32152 (89526)
Both legs:
Invested
$22.57
Value
$104.58
PnL
+$82.01
Record
51%
6507-6200 (12707)
Invested
$14.6
Value
$36.58
PnL
+$21.98
Record
56%
57417-44359 (101776)
Invested
$22.93
Value
$27.3
PnL
+$4.37
Record
61%
93493-58782 (152275)
Invested
$21.84
Value
—
PnL
-$21.84
Record
58%
37308-26476 (63784)
Invested
$9.3
Value
$10.5
PnL
+$1.2
Record
66%
124076-63863 (187939)
Invested
$6.16
Value
$17.11
PnL
+$10.95
Record
58%
59979-43785 (103764)
Invested
$6.44
Value
$7.16
PnL
+$0.72
Record
52%
88990-83472 (172462)
Invested
$43.5
Value
—
PnL
+$7.76
Record
65%
20906-11464 (32370)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19668-18828 (38496)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $219.21
pspspsps5
Down — $66.58
MayorMamdani
Down — $57.19
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $104.58
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $36.58
asidjasiodja
Down — $27.3
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $10.5
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $17.11