Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
15
Down 79%
1 arb excluded
$534.65
-$161.9
Smart Money Signal
11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 34.1¢ | $561.81 | $491.3 | -$70.51 | 51% 6507-6200 (12707) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39¢ | $191.57 | $491.3 | +$299.73 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.1¢ | $370.24 | — | -$370.24 | |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 6.4¢ | $8.1 | — | -$8.1 | 62% 43512-26432 (69944) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 22.2¢ | $17.23 | — | -$17.23 | 61% 93493-58782 (152275) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 67.1¢ | $40.12 | — | -$40.12 | 55% 43758-36180 (79938) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $38.81 | — | -$34.24 | 65% 20906-11464 (32370) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 58.2¢ | $17.93 | $22.85 | +$4.92 | 63% 50771-29982 (80753) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $26.36 | — | -$26.36 | 59% 21624-14921 (36545) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Downavg 49.9¢ | $24.51 | — | -$24.51 | 66% 98395-50832 (149227) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $16.1 | $15 | -$1.1 | 65% 123790-66202 (189992) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 61.7¢ | $8.47 | — | -$8.47 | 56% 57417-44359 (101776) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 20¢ | $6.01 | — | -$6.01 | 66% 124076-63863 (187939) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 30¢ | $2.98 | $5.5 | +$2.52 | 52% 88990-83472 (172462) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 10¢ | $2.55 | — | -$2.55 | 58% 59979-43785 (103764) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 60.2¢ | $16.56 | — | +$1.74 | 64% 57374-32152 (89526) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 58% 37308-26476 (63784) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19668-18828 (38496) |
Invested
$561.81
Value
$491.3
PnL
-$70.51
Record
51%
6507-6200 (12707)
Both legs:
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$8.1
Value
—
PnL
-$8.1
Record
62%
43512-26432 (69944)
Invested
$17.23
Value
—
PnL
-$17.23
Record
61%
93493-58782 (152275)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$40.12
Value
—
PnL
-$40.12
Record
55%
43758-36180 (79938)
Invested
$38.81
Value
—
PnL
-$34.24
Record
65%
20906-11464 (32370)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$17.93
Value
$22.85
PnL
+$4.92
Record
63%
50771-29982 (80753)
Invested
$26.36
Value
—
PnL
-$26.36
Record
59%
21624-14921 (36545)
Invested
$24.51
Value
—
PnL
-$24.51
Record
66%
98395-50832 (149227)
Invested
$16.1
Value
$15
PnL
-$1.1
Record
65%
123790-66202 (189992)
Invested
$8.47
Value
—
PnL
-$8.47
Record
56%
57417-44359 (101776)
Invested
$6.01
Value
—
PnL
-$6.01
Record
66%
124076-63863 (187939)
Invested
$2.98
Value
$5.5
PnL
+$2.52
Record
52%
88990-83472 (172462)
Invested
$2.55
Value
—
PnL
-$2.55
Record
58%
59979-43785 (103764)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$16.56
Value
—
PnL
+$1.74
Record
64%
57374-32152 (89526)
Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
58%
37308-26476 (63784)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19668-18828 (38496)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
G-Penis-Monster
CTRDown — $0
asidjasiodja
CTRDown — $0
MayorMamdani
CTRDown — $0
aaa221
CTRDown — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
Up — $22.85
rabadabadoo
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $15
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRDown — $0