Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
$446.56
$184.12
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $144.72 | $97.01 | -$47.71 | 51% 6457-6156 (12613) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $84.61 | — | -$84.61 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62¢ | $60.11 | $97.01 | +$36.9 | |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 69.6¢ | $39.3 | $52.6 | +$13.3 | 55% 43713-36124 (79837) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 20.6¢ | $49.12 | $238.32 | +$189.2 | 57% 69092-52584 (121676) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 56.6¢ | $28.61 | $36.28 | +$7.67 | 54% 10142-8602 (18744) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 80.9¢ | $9.82 | $10.9 | +$1.08 | 63% 50719-29966 (80685) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 80.4¢ | $28.81 | — | -$24.25 | 65% 20812-11390 (32202) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $5.9 | — | -$5.9 | 61% 93423-58740 (152163) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $4.8 | — | -$4.8 | 66% 123993-63821 (187814) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $1.66 | — | -$1.66 | 65% 123715-66149 (189864) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 20.5¢ | $1.32 | $6.45 | +$5.13 | 52% 88930-83410 (172340) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 13¢ | $0.65 | $5 | +$4.35 | 64% 57344-32114 (89458) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 87.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19648-18799 (38447) |
Invested
$144.72
Value
$97.01
PnL
-$47.71
Record
51%
6457-6156 (12613)
Both legs:
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$39.3
Value
$52.6
PnL
+$13.3
Record
55%
43713-36124 (79837)
Invested
$49.12
Value
$238.32
PnL
+$189.2
Record
57%
69092-52584 (121676)
Invested
$28.61
Value
$36.28
PnL
+$7.67
Record
54%
10142-8602 (18744)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$9.82
Value
$10.9
PnL
+$1.08
Record
63%
50719-29966 (80685)
Invested
$28.81
Value
—
PnL
-$24.25
Record
65%
20812-11390 (32202)
Invested
$5.9
Value
—
PnL
-$5.9
Record
61%
93423-58740 (152163)
Invested
$4.8
Value
—
PnL
-$4.8
Record
66%
123993-63821 (187814)
Invested
$1.66
Value
—
PnL
-$1.66
Record
65%
123715-66149 (189864)
Invested
$1.32
Value
$6.45
PnL
+$5.13
Record
52%
88930-83410 (172340)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$0.65
Value
$5
PnL
+$4.35
Record
64%
57344-32114 (89458)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19648-18799 (38447)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
MayorMamdani
Down — $52.6
uninformedfloww
Down — $238.32
thesidehustle
Down — $36.28
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $10.9
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
asidjasiodja
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
CTRUp — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
CTRUp — $0
dvasdkasodk
Down — $6.45