Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 64%
1 arb excluded
$551.25
$12.44
Smart Money Signal
9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $223.76 | $164.34 | -$59.42 | 57% 69092-52584 (121676) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 90¢ | $147.86 | $164.34 | +$16.47 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.7¢ | $75.89 | — | -$75.89 | |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 74¢ | $114.29 | $131.51 | +$17.22 | 51% 6457-6156 (12613) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $36.9 | $90 | +$5.9 | 51% 19648-18799 (38447) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $4.43 | — | -$4.43 | 59% 61841-42785 (104626) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 89.7¢ | $31.85 | $35.52 | +$3.67 | 54% 10142-8602 (18744) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 88.6¢ | $39.85 | $30 | -$0.25 | 64% 57344-32114 (89458) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 83.1¢ | $27.81 | $29 | +$1.19 | 55% 43713-36124 (79837) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 86.5¢ | $17.87 | $19.1 | +$1.23 | 66% 123993-63821 (187814) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 89.4¢ | $15.02 | $15.4 | +$0.38 | 52% 88930-83410 (172340) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 9.4¢ | $9.71 | — | -$9.71 | 46% 37715-44132 (81847) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 11¢ | $2.2 | — | -$2.2 | 65% 123715-66149 (189864) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 84.2¢ | $15.47 | $18.38 | +$2.91 | 61% 93423-58740 (152163) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $13.68 | $18 | +$4.32 | 56% 57395-44340 (101735) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $7.11 | — | -$7.11 | 48% 22949-24961 (47910) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $0.68 | — | -$0.68 | 65% 20812-11390 (32202) |
Invested
$223.76
Value
$164.34
PnL
-$59.42
Record
57%
69092-52584 (121676)
Both legs:
Invested
$114.29
Value
$131.51
PnL
+$17.22
Record
51%
6457-6156 (12613)
Invested
$36.9
Value
$90
PnL
+$5.9
Record
51%
19648-18799 (38447)
Invested
$4.43
Value
—
PnL
-$4.43
Record
59%
61841-42785 (104626)
Invested
$31.85
Value
$35.52
PnL
+$3.67
Record
54%
10142-8602 (18744)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$39.85
Value
$30
PnL
-$0.25
Record
64%
57344-32114 (89458)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$27.81
Value
$29
PnL
+$1.19
Record
55%
43713-36124 (79837)
Invested
$17.87
Value
$19.1
PnL
+$1.23
Record
66%
123993-63821 (187814)
Invested
$15.02
Value
$15.4
PnL
+$0.38
Record
52%
88930-83410 (172340)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$9.71
Value
—
PnL
-$9.71
Record
46%
37715-44132 (81847)
Invested
$2.2
Value
—
PnL
-$2.2
Record
65%
123715-66149 (189864)
Invested
$15.47
Value
$18.38
PnL
+$2.91
Record
61%
93423-58740 (152163)
Invested
$13.68
Value
$18
PnL
+$4.32
Record
56%
57395-44340 (101735)
Invested
$7.11
Value
—
PnL
-$7.11
Record
48%
22949-24961 (47910)
Invested
$0.68
Value
—
PnL
-$0.68
Record
65%
20812-11390 (32202)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $131.51
devonpoll
Down — $90
0x50f7
CTRUp — $0
thesidehustle
Down — $35.52
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $30
MayorMamdani
Down — $29
asdaefef
Down — $19.1
dvasdkasodk
Down — $15.4
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0