Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
Resolved Down. 30% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Up 30%
3 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$586.39
Smart Money Signal
6 of 20 top traders (30%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bisonarcticCTR | Upavg 53.4¢ | $1.0K | — | $-1.0K | 48% 21-23 (44) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 50.3¢ | $166.87 | $293.84 | +$126.97 | 57% 69047-52548 (121595) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.7¢ | $229.09 | $376.22 | +$147.13 | 51% 6435-6131 (12566) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.7¢ | $186.96 | $376.22 | +$189.26 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.4¢ | $42.12 | — | -$42.12 | |
BO borderlocket | Downavg 65.1¢ | $294.42 | $452.35 | +$157.92 | 55% 50-41 (91) |
OX oxe78sh4w98 | Downavg 67.7¢ | $258.4 | $381.43 | +$123.03 | 53% 300-264 (564) |
 AtomforgeARB<$100 | Upavg 60.5¢ | $225.52 | $83.35 | -$142.17 | 65% 3816-2060 (5876) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.5¢ | $169.05 | — | -$169.05 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.7¢ | $56.47 | $83.35 | +$26.88 | |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 38.2¢ | $82.16 | $129.56 | +$47.4 | 55% 43689-36107 (79796) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Downavg 29¢ | $54.43 | $187.69 | +$133.26 | 48% 22946-24943 (47889) |
TH thesidehustleCTR | Upavg 59.9¢ | $129.84 | — | -$129.84 | 54% 10141-8602 (18743) |
 pspspsps5ARB<$100 | Downavg 35.6¢ | $59.23 | $134.1 | +$74.87 | 46% 37702-44110 (81812) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.6¢ | $47.74 | $134.1 | +$86.36 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 21¢ | $11.49 | — | -$11.49 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 62.9¢ | $76.74 | $122.04 | +$45.3 | 58% 59948-43760 (103708) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 59¢ | $61.55 | — | -$61.55 | 64% 57270-32043 (89313) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $43.79 | $44.23 | +$0.44 | 93% 22237-1714 (23951) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $50.58 | — | -$50.58 | 52% 1954-1769 (3723) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 54.2¢ | $55.9 | $29.71 | +$10.55 | 65% 20770-11363 (32133) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 55.4¢ | $19.38 | $35 | +$15.62 | 66% 98332-50785 (149117) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 32.6¢ | $29.59 | — | -$29.59 | 55% 49865-40473 (90338) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $9.66 | $17.56 | +$7.9 | 61% 93399-58707 (152106) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $7.38 | $16.04 | +$8.66 | 65% 123689-66126 (189815) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 58.3¢ | $7.58 | $13 | +$5.42 | 12% 17875-132699 (150574) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $5.38 | $5.09 | -$0.29 | 52% 88909-83368 (172277) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $3.66 | $7.96 | +$4.3 | 66% 123955-63798 (187753) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 30¢ | $6.2 | — | -$0.8 | 51% 19623-18797 (38420) |
Invested
$1,000.51
Value
—
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
48%
21-23 (44)
Invested
$166.87
Value
$293.84
PnL
+$126.97
Record
57%
69047-52548 (121595)
Invested
$229.09
Value
$376.22
PnL
+$147.13
Record
51%
6435-6131 (12566)
Both legs:
Invested
$294.42
Value
$452.35
PnL
+$157.92
Record
55%
50-41 (91)
Invested
$258.4
Value
$381.43
PnL
+$123.03
Record
53%
300-264 (564)
AtomforgeARB<$100Invested
$225.52
Value
$83.35
PnL
-$142.17
Record
65%
3816-2060 (5876)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniInvested
$82.16
Value
$129.56
PnL
+$47.4
Record
55%
43689-36107 (79796)
Invested
$54.43
Value
$187.69
PnL
+$133.26
Record
48%
22946-24943 (47889)
Invested
$129.84
Value
—
PnL
-$129.84
Record
54%
10141-8602 (18743)
pspspsps5ARB<$100Invested
$59.23
Value
$134.1
PnL
+$74.87
Record
46%
37702-44110 (81812)
Both legs:
Invested
$76.74
Value
$122.04
PnL
+$45.3
Record
58%
59948-43760 (103708)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$61.55
Value
—
PnL
-$61.55
Record
64%
57270-32043 (89313)
Invested
$43.79
Value
$44.23
PnL
+$0.44
Record
93%
22237-1714 (23951)
Invested
$50.58
Value
—
PnL
-$50.58
Record
52%
1954-1769 (3723)
Invested
$55.9
Value
$29.71
PnL
+$10.55
Record
65%
20770-11363 (32133)
Invested
$19.38
Value
$35
PnL
+$15.62
Record
66%
98332-50785 (149117)
Invested
$29.59
Value
—
PnL
-$29.59
Record
55%
49865-40473 (90338)
Invested
$9.66
Value
$17.56
PnL
+$7.9
Record
61%
93399-58707 (152106)
Invested
$7.38
Value
$16.04
PnL
+$8.66
Record
65%
123689-66126 (189815)
Invested
$7.58
Value
$13
PnL
+$5.42
Record
12%
17875-132699 (150574)
Invested
$5.38
Value
$5.09
PnL
-$0.29
Record
52%
88909-83368 (172277)
Invested
$3.66
Value
$7.96
PnL
+$4.3
Record
66%
123955-63798 (187753)
Invested
$6.2
Value
—
PnL
-$0.8
Record
51%
19623-18797 (38420)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
bisonarctic
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $293.84
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
borderlocket
Down — $452.35
oxe78sh4w98
Down — $381.43
Atomforge
ARBArbitrage — excluded
MayorMamdani
Down — $129.56
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
Down — $187.69
thesidehustle
CTRUp — $0
pspspsps5
ARBArbitrage — excluded