Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Down 53%
1 arb excluded
$816.49
-$94.11
Smart Money Signal
8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $414.95 | $419.14 | +$4.19 | 93% 22237-1714 (23951) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 81.4¢ | $284.27 | $269.58 | -$14.7 | 51% 6435-6131 (12566) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 81.4¢ | $219.55 | $269.58 | +$50.03 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 14.8¢ | $64.73 | — | -$64.73 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 18¢ | $78.78 | — | -$78.78 | 57% 69047-52548 (121595) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $28.28 | $20 | -$8.28 | 55% 43689-36107 (79796) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 87.1¢ | $45.64 | $52.43 | +$6.79 | 63% 50706-29951 (80657) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 26¢ | $23.58 | — | -$23.58 | 62% 43482-26402 (69884) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 12¢ | $6.03 | — | -$6.03 | 56% 57382-44326 (101708) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $7.23 | $11.29 | +$4.06 | 46% 37702-44110 (81812) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $13.95 | $15 | +$1.05 | 65% 123689-66126 (189815) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $6.72 | $12 | +$5.28 | 12% 17875-132699 (150574) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $6.72 | $12 | +$5.28 | 66% 98332-50785 (149117) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 12¢ | $1.26 | — | -$1.26 | 61% 93399-58707 (152106) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $4.35 | $5.06 | +$0.71 | 66% 123955-63798 (187753) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 17.5¢ | $3.6 | — | -$1.4 | 51% 19623-18797 (38420) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $1.5 | — | -$1.5 | 52% 88909-83368 (172277) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 13¢ | $0.65 | — | -$0.65 | 74% 101953-36265 (138218) |
Invested
$414.95
Value
$419.14
PnL
+$4.19
Record
93%
22237-1714 (23951)
Invested
$284.27
Value
$269.58
PnL
-$14.7
Record
51%
6435-6131 (12566)
Both legs:
Invested
$78.78
Value
—
PnL
-$78.78
Record
57%
69047-52548 (121595)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$28.28
Value
$20
PnL
-$8.28
Record
55%
43689-36107 (79796)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$45.64
Value
$52.43
PnL
+$6.79
Record
63%
50706-29951 (80657)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$23.58
Value
—
PnL
-$23.58
Record
62%
43482-26402 (69884)
Invested
$6.03
Value
—
PnL
-$6.03
Record
56%
57382-44326 (101708)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$7.23
Value
$11.29
PnL
+$4.06
Record
46%
37702-44110 (81812)
Invested
$13.95
Value
$15
PnL
+$1.05
Record
65%
123689-66126 (189815)
Invested
$6.72
Value
$12
PnL
+$5.28
Record
12%
17875-132699 (150574)
Invested
$6.72
Value
$12
PnL
+$5.28
Record
66%
98332-50785 (149117)
Invested
$1.26
Value
—
PnL
-$1.26
Record
61%
93399-58707 (152106)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$5.06
PnL
+$0.71
Record
66%
123955-63798 (187753)
Invested
$3.6
Value
—
PnL
-$1.4
Record
51%
19623-18797 (38420)
Invested
$1.5
Value
—
PnL
-$1.5
Record
52%
88909-83368 (172277)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$0.65
Value
—
PnL
-$0.65
Record
74%
101953-36265 (138218)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $419.14
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
Down — $20
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $52.43
G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0
pspspsps5
Down — $11.29
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $15
Hsilverbasher
Down — $12