Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 67%
8 arb excluded
$4.1K
-$101.33
Smart Money Signal
8 of 12 top traders (67%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OX oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100 | Upavg 52.3¢ | $1.4K | $813.41 | -$632.54 | 53% 300-264 (564) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 74.6¢ | $606.82 | $813.41 | +$206.59 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.3¢ | $839.13 | — | -$839.13 | |
BO borderlocket | Downavg 72.2¢ | $944.22 | $1.0K | +$61.74 | 55% 50-41 (91) |
RO royalanchor02CTR | Upavg 46.1¢ | $638.21 | — | -$638.21 | 52% 45-41 (86) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 54.2¢ | $529.53 | $851.37 | +$321.85 | 57% 69047-52548 (121595) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 35.8¢ | $320.24 | $323.3 | +$3.06 | 51% 6435-6131 (12566) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.4¢ | $159.87 | $323.3 | +$163.43 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.8¢ | $160.37 | — | -$160.37 | |
 AtomforgeARB<$100 | Upavg 52.6¢ | $336.02 | $163.95 | -$172.07 | 65% 3816-2060 (5876) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.6¢ | $211.46 | — | -$211.46 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 76¢ | $124.56 | $163.95 | +$39.39 | |
TH thesidehustleARB<$100 | Upavg 48.2¢ | $161.01 | $142.45 | -$18.56 | 54% 10141-8602 (18743) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.7¢ | $79.31 | $142.45 | +$63.14 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.2¢ | $81.7 | — | -$81.7 | |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Downavg 47¢ | $141 | $299.99 | +$159 | 48% 22946-24943 (47889) |
 pspspsps5ARB<$100 | Downavg 48.6¢ | $96.74 | $158.6 | +$61.86 | 46% 37702-44110 (81812) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.6¢ | $77.1 | $158.6 | +$81.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.4¢ | $19.64 | — | -$19.64 | |
 MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Downavg 68.8¢ | $120.25 | $146.14 | +$25.88 | 55% 43689-36107 (79796) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.8¢ | $100.56 | $146.14 | +$45.57 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 22.4¢ | $19.69 | — | -$19.69 | |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100 | Upavg 57.4¢ | $101.06 | $54.11 | -$46.95 | 52% 1954-1769 (3723) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 82.4¢ | $44.61 | $54.11 | +$9.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 57.4¢ | $56.45 | — | -$56.45 | |
AA aaa221ARB<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $69.51 | $41.63 | -$4.58 | 65% 20770-11363 (32133) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.7¢ | $25.7 | $41.63 | +$22.34 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37¢ | $28.47 | — | -$26.93 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 66.3¢ | $50.65 | $45.6 | -$5.05 | 65% 123689-66126 (189815) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 5¢ | $5.26 | — | -$5.26 | 59% 61828-42766 (104594) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 46.1¢ | $37.94 | — | -$37.94 | 55% 49865-40473 (90338) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $22.73 | $33.93 | +$11.2 | 64% 39585-22576 (62161) |
BI bisonarctic<$100 | Downavg 35.7¢ | $16.47 | $46.18 | +$29.71 | 48% 21-23 (44) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $12.02 | $15 | +$2.98 | 58% 59948-43760 (103708) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $4.1 | $5 | +$0.9 | 61% 93399-58707 (152106) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $2.22 | — | -$2.22 | 66% 98332-50785 (149117) |
Invested
$1,445.95
Value
$813.41
PnL
-$632.54
Record
53%
300-264 (564)
Both legs:
Invested
$944.22
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$61.74
Record
55%
50-41 (91)
Invested
$638.21
Value
—
PnL
-$638.21
Record
52%
45-41 (86)
Invested
$529.53
Value
$851.37
PnL
+$321.85
Record
57%
69047-52548 (121595)
Invested
$320.24
Value
$323.3
PnL
+$3.06
Record
51%
6435-6131 (12566)
Both legs:
AtomforgeARB<$100Invested
$336.02
Value
$163.95
PnL
-$172.07
Record
65%
3816-2060 (5876)
Both legs:
Invested
$161.01
Value
$142.45
PnL
-$18.56
Record
54%
10141-8602 (18743)
Both legs:
Invested
$141
Value
$299.99
PnL
+$159
Record
48%
22946-24943 (47889)
pspspsps5ARB<$100Invested
$96.74
Value
$158.6
PnL
+$61.86
Record
46%
37702-44110 (81812)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$120.25
Value
$146.14
PnL
+$25.88
Record
55%
43689-36107 (79796)
Both legs:
Invested
$101.06
Value
$54.11
PnL
-$46.95
Record
52%
1954-1769 (3723)
Both legs:
Invested
$69.51
Value
$41.63
PnL
-$4.58
Record
65%
20770-11363 (32133)
Both legs:
Invested
$50.65
Value
$45.6
PnL
-$5.05
Record
65%
123689-66126 (189815)
Invested
$5.26
Value
—
PnL
-$5.26
Record
59%
61828-42766 (104594)
Invested
$37.94
Value
—
PnL
-$37.94
Record
55%
49865-40473 (90338)
ohioism<$100Invested
$22.73
Value
$33.93
PnL
+$11.2
Record
64%
39585-22576 (62161)
Invested
$16.47
Value
$46.18
PnL
+$29.71
Record
48%
21-23 (44)
Invested
$12.02
Value
$15
PnL
+$2.98
Record
58%
59948-43760 (103708)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.9
Record
61%
93399-58707 (152106)
Invested
$2.22
Value
—
PnL
-$2.22
Record
66%
98332-50785 (149117)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
oxe78sh4w98
ARBArbitrage — excluded
borderlocket
Down — $1.0K
royalanchor02
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $851.37
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Atomforge
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thesidehustle
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
Down — $299.99
pspspsps5
ARBArbitrage — excluded
MayorMamdani
ARBArbitrage — excluded