Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Down 70%
2 arb excluded
$482.6
$53.94
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 64.2¢ | $205.64 | $182.33 | -$23.31 | 51% 6406-6111 (12517) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.2¢ | $117.14 | $182.33 | +$65.19 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58.7¢ | $88.5 | — | -$88.5 | |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 42.9¢ | $160.62 | $77.62 | -$83 | 57% 68891-52429 (121320) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.9¢ | $116.95 | — | -$116.95 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.3¢ | $43.67 | $77.62 | +$33.95 | |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 84.8¢ | $78.15 | $79.42 | +$1.27 | 61% 93357-58685 (152042) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $23.54 | $49.04 | +$25.5 | 58% 50649-36785 (87434) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 91.8¢ | $21.27 | $22 | +$0.73 | 66% 123902-63779 (187681) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $17.07 | $21 | +$3.93 | 52% 88881-83328 (172209) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 63.4¢ | $32.32 | $11.68 | +$17.11 | 65% 20711-11321 (32032) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $10.97 | $21.51 | +$10.54 | 62% 43473-26393 (69866) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 7.2¢ | $3.18 | — | -$3.18 | 55% 43651-36077 (79728) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $15.12 | $18 | +$2.88 | 64% 39575-22571 (62146) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $3.86 | — | -$3.86 | 65% 123648-66111 (189759) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 4.3¢ | $1.2 | — | -$1.2 | 46% 37691-44086 (81777) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $9.6 | — | +$0.22 | 51% 19610-18785 (38395) |
Invested
$205.64
Value
$182.33
PnL
-$23.31
Record
51%
6406-6111 (12517)
Both legs:
Invested
$160.62
Value
$77.62
PnL
-$83
Record
57%
68891-52429 (121320)
Both legs:
Invested
$78.15
Value
$79.42
PnL
+$1.27
Record
61%
93357-58685 (152042)
Invested
$23.54
Value
$49.04
PnL
+$25.5
Record
58%
50649-36785 (87434)
Invested
$21.27
Value
$22
PnL
+$0.73
Record
66%
123902-63779 (187681)
Invested
$17.07
Value
$21
PnL
+$3.93
Record
52%
88881-83328 (172209)
Invested
$32.32
Value
$11.68
PnL
+$17.11
Record
65%
20711-11321 (32032)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$10.97
Value
$21.51
PnL
+$10.54
Record
62%
43473-26393 (69866)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$3.18
Value
—
PnL
-$3.18
Record
55%
43651-36077 (79728)
ohioism<$100Invested
$15.12
Value
$18
PnL
+$2.88
Record
64%
39575-22571 (62146)
Invested
$3.86
Value
—
PnL
-$3.86
Record
65%
123648-66111 (189759)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.2
Value
—
PnL
-$1.2
Record
46%
37691-44086 (81777)
Invested
$9.6
Value
—
PnL
+$0.22
Record
51%
19610-18785 (38395)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asidjasiodja
Down — $79.42
PBot-6
Down — $49.04
asdaefef
Down — $22
dvasdkasodk
Down — $21
aaa221
Down — $11.68
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $21.51
MayorMamdani
CTRUp — $0
ohioism
Down — $18