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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$161.21

Combined PnL

-$48.47

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares143
Combined PnL-$64.36
Down4 traders
Total Value$73.7
Total Shares74
Combined PnL+$15.89
Up — 56%Down — 44%
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$88.18

Value

$87.51

PnL

-$0.66

Record

51%

6357-6072 (12429)

Both legs:

Down$54.8562.7¢+$32.67
Up$33.3330.9¢-$33.33
KA
Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$40.85

Value

—

PnL

-$40.85

Record

55%

17077-13720 (30797)

AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Down

Invested

$19.11

Value

$21.05

PnL

+$1.94

Record

61%

93280-58641 (151921)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$15

Value

$20

PnL

+$5

Record

65%

123573-66074 (189647)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$13.68

Value

—

PnL

-$13.68

Record

55%

43591-36019 (79610)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100
Down

Invested

$11.93

Value

$22.51

PnL

+$10.58

Record

58%

59914-43736 (103650)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Down

Invested

$11.77

Value

$10.14

PnL

-$1.63

Record

66%

123808-63743 (187551)

pspspsps5CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.43

Value

—

PnL

-$0.43

Record

46%

37670-44030 (81700)

AA
aaa221CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$23.68

Value

—

PnL

-$9.39

Record

65%

20619-11265 (31884)

DE
devonpollCTR<$100
Up

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

19576-18764 (38340)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0xa0f248ed...b2f87b
Slug
eth-updown-5m-1793106000

Traders in this Market

PL

ply-pm2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$0.66
KA

Kathod-Shi-14

CTR

Up — $0

-$40.85
AS

asidjasiodja

Down — $21.05

+$1.94
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $20

+$5

MayorMamdani

CTR

Up — $0

-$13.68
0X

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $22.51

+$10.58
AS

asdaefef

Down — $10.14

-$1.63

pspspsps5

CTR

Up — $0

-$0.43
AA

aaa221

CTR

Up — $0

-$9.39
DE

devonpoll

CTR

Up — $0

+$0
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