Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
11
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
$205.99
-$67.94
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 54.7¢ | $83.69 | $108.37 | +$24.68 | 51% 6357-6072 (12429) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.7¢ | $59.32 | $108.37 | +$49.05 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.8¢ | $24.37 | — | -$24.37 | |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2.1¢ | $3.23 | — | -$3.23 | 59% 61779-42723 (104502) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 4.3¢ | $4.07 | — | -$4.07 | 46% 37670-44030 (81700) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 11.8¢ | $14.39 | — | -$14.39 | 58% 37208-26416 (63624) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $24.35 | — | -$24.35 | 55% 17077-13720 (30797) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 76.7¢ | $32.4 | $20.43 | -$1.65 | 65% 20619-11265 (31884) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 87.4¢ | $38.19 | $38.83 | +$0.64 | 61% 93280-58641 (151921) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 90.2¢ | $10.16 | $10.51 | +$0.35 | 55% 43591-36019 (79610) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $21.6 | — | -$21.6 | 65% 123573-66074 (189647) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 86.2¢ | $10.86 | $12.59 | +$1.73 | 52% 88816-83270 (172086) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 88.7¢ | $16.63 | $15.26 | -$1.37 | 66% 123808-63743 (187551) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19576-18764 (38340) |
Invested
$83.69
Value
$108.37
PnL
+$24.68
Record
51%
6357-6072 (12429)
Both legs:
Invested
$3.23
Value
—
PnL
-$3.23
Record
59%
61779-42723 (104502)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$4.07
Value
—
PnL
-$4.07
Record
46%
37670-44030 (81700)
Invested
$14.39
Value
—
PnL
-$14.39
Record
58%
37208-26416 (63624)
Invested
$24.35
Value
—
PnL
-$24.35
Record
55%
17077-13720 (30797)
Invested
$32.4
Value
$20.43
PnL
-$1.65
Record
65%
20619-11265 (31884)
Invested
$38.19
Value
$38.83
PnL
+$0.64
Record
61%
93280-58641 (151921)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$10.16
Value
$10.51
PnL
+$0.35
Record
55%
43591-36019 (79610)
Invested
$21.6
Value
—
PnL
-$21.6
Record
65%
123573-66074 (189647)
Invested
$10.86
Value
$12.59
PnL
+$1.73
Record
52%
88816-83270 (172086)
Invested
$16.63
Value
$15.26
PnL
-$1.37
Record
66%
123808-63743 (187551)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19576-18764 (38340)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x50f7
CTRUp — $0
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $20.43
asidjasiodja
Down — $38.83
MayorMamdani
Down — $10.51
drfc4eybh7i8
CTRUp — $0
dvasdkasodk
Down — $12.59