Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Down 67%
3 arb excluded
$696.83
$8.9
Smart Money Signal
8 of 13 top traders (62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 36.2¢ | $162.11 | $182.89 | +$20.78 | 51% 6332-6019 (12351) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.2¢ | $90.31 | — | -$90.31 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.3¢ | $71.8 | $182.89 | +$111.09 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 63.6¢ | $172.7 | $146.33 | -$26.37 | 68% 98383-46651 (145034) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.9¢ | $79.58 | — | -$79.58 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.6¢ | $93.12 | $146.33 | +$53.21 | |
TH thesidehustleARB<$100 | Downavg 56.1¢ | $51.86 | $61.56 | +$9.71 | 54% 10045-8522 (18567) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.1¢ | $34.53 | $61.56 | +$27.03 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.1¢ | $17.33 | — | -$17.33 | |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 73.1¢ | $72.18 | $98.79 | +$26.61 | 55% 43553-35965 (79518) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 71.6¢ | $46.86 | $47.8 | +$0.94 | 66% 123735-63707 (187442) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $38.28 | $29.83 | -$8.45 | 61% 93231-58595 (151826) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 54.9¢ | $35.65 | $64.88 | +$29.23 | 55% 17023-13675 (30698) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $28.8 | $26.53 | -$1.07 | 65% 123512-66036 (189548) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $2.52 | — | -$2.52 | 62% 43450-26355 (69805) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $21.45 | $13.22 | -$8.23 | 63% 50605-29885 (80490) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 48.9¢ | $28.89 | — | -$28.89 | 66% 111116-57341 (168457) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $15.28 | $20 | +$4.72 | 65% 20534-11219 (31753) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $2.79 | — | -$2.79 | 74% 101896-36253 (138149) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $3.55 | $5 | +$1.45 | 58% 37186-26392 (63578) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $2.1 | — | -$2.1 | 52% 88772-83208 (171980) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19552-18740 (38292) |
Invested
$162.11
Value
$182.89
PnL
+$20.78
Record
51%
6332-6019 (12351)
Both legs:
Invested
$172.7
Value
$146.33
PnL
-$26.37
Record
68%
98383-46651 (145034)
Both legs:
Invested
$51.86
Value
$61.56
PnL
+$9.71
Record
54%
10045-8522 (18567)
Both legs:
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$72.18
Value
$98.79
PnL
+$26.61
Record
55%
43553-35965 (79518)
Invested
$46.86
Value
$47.8
PnL
+$0.94
Record
66%
123735-63707 (187442)
Invested
$38.28
Value
$29.83
PnL
-$8.45
Record
61%
93231-58595 (151826)
Invested
$35.65
Value
$64.88
PnL
+$29.23
Record
55%
17023-13675 (30698)
Invested
$28.8
Value
$26.53
PnL
-$1.07
Record
65%
123512-66036 (189548)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$2.52
Value
—
PnL
-$2.52
Record
62%
43450-26355 (69805)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$21.45
Value
$13.22
PnL
-$8.23
Record
63%
50605-29885 (80490)
Invested
$28.89
Value
—
PnL
-$28.89
Record
66%
111116-57341 (168457)
Invested
$15.28
Value
$20
PnL
+$4.72
Record
65%
20534-11219 (31753)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$2.79
Value
—
PnL
-$2.79
Record
74%
101896-36253 (138149)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.45
Record
58%
37186-26392 (63578)
Invested
$2.1
Value
—
PnL
-$2.1
Record
52%
88772-83208 (171980)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19552-18740 (38292)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thesidehustle
ARBArbitrage — excluded
MayorMamdani
Down — $98.79
asdaefef
Down — $47.8
asidjasiodja
Down — $29.83
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $64.88
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $26.53
G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $13.22