Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (75%) · Down at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$255.86

Smart Money Entry

69.2¢ → 99.4¢

+44% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,054

Combined PnL+$264.52

Up2 traders

Total Value$7.67

Total Shares363

Combined PnL-$8.65

Down — 75%Up — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Down 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 75.6¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$238.68	51% 3248-3166 (6414)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$500	$481.67	-$18.33	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Upavg 18.8¢	$94.16	$87.35	-$6.81	49% 429-439 (868)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.3¢	$34.16	$52.15	+$17.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.8¢	$60	$35.2	-$24.8
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 96.5¢	$144.71	$57.68	+$8.17	47% 69-77 (146)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 65¢	$32.5	$44.5	+$12	51% 1450-1401 (2851)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 65¢	$32.5	$44.5	+$12	51% 4704-4511 (9215)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 65¢	$32.5	$44.5	+$12	51% 1455-1389 (2844)
justdanceCTR	Upavg 31¢	$188.88	$7.45	-$1.4	51% 35-33 (68)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 19¢	$7.47	$0.22	-$7.25	46% 2852-3388 (6240)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,101.91

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$238.68

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$481.67

PnL

-$18.33

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$94.16

Value

$87.35

PnL

-$6.81

Record

49%

429-439 (868)

Both legs:

Down$34.1658.3¢+$17.99

Up$6018.8¢-$24.8

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$144.71

Value

$57.68

PnL

+$8.17

Record

47%

69-77 (146)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$32.5

Value

$44.5

PnL

+$12

Record

51%

1450-1401 (2851)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$32.5

Value

$44.5

PnL

+$12

Record

51%

4704-4511 (9215)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$32.5

Value

$44.5

PnL

+$12

Record

51%

1455-1389 (2844)

justdanceCTR

Invested

$188.88

Value

$7.45

PnL

-$1.4

Record

51%

35-33 (68)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$7.47

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$7.25

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Down 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.