Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Down β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 20% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
π
Won
5
Down 25%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
-$261.87
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 67.6Β’ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$72.16 | 51% 3203-3131 (6334) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50Β’ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 54% 3546-3013 (6559) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $250 | β | -$250 | |
AN Anon455CTR | Upavg 23.8Β’ | $226.18 | β | -$226.18 | 50% 427-435 (862) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 48.2Β’ | $81.41 | β | -$81.41 | 46% 2814-3341 (6155) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 44.9Β’ | $84.04 | β | -$24.57 | 47% 66-74 (140) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 70Β’ | $39.14 | β | -$1.87 | 51% 1428-1364 (2792) |
Invested
$1,906.11
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$72.16
Record
51%
3203-3131 (6334)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
3546-3013 (6559)
Both legs:
Invested
$226.18
Value
β
PnL
-$226.18
Record
50%
427-435 (862)
Invested
$81.41
Value
β
PnL
-$81.41
Record
46%
2814-3341 (6155)
Invested
$84.04
Value
β
PnL
-$24.57
Record
47%
66-74 (140)
Invested
$39.14
Value
β
PnL
-$1.87
Record
51%
1428-1364 (2792)