Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 76¢ · $300 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Down
4
Down 100%
1 arb excluded
$300
-$12.2
81.4¢ → 75.5¢
-7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Downavg 58.1¢ | $88.35 | $117.2 | +$28.85 | 42% 154-210 (364) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.1¢ | $71.69 | $91.26 | +$19.57 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16.7¢ | $16.66 | $25.94 | +$9.28 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 83.9¢ | $113.25 | $100.92 | -$12.32 | 53% 675-591 (1266) |
 justdance<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $47.05 | $45.8 | -$1.25 | 43% 9-12 (21) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $29.7 | $31.2 | +$1.5 | 41% 304-433 (737) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $5 | $4.87 | -$0.13 | 40% 302-444 (746) |
Invested
$88.35
Value
$117.2
PnL
+$28.85
Record
42%
154-210 (364)
Both legs:
Invested
$113.25
Value
$100.92
PnL
-$12.32
Record
53%
675-591 (1266)
justdance<$100Invested
$47.05
Value
$45.8
PnL
-$1.25
Record
43%
9-12 (21)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$31.2
PnL
+$1.5
Record
41%
304-433 (737)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.87
PnL
-$0.13
Record
40%
302-444 (746)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.