Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 74¢ · $413 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 100%
$413.35
$4.89
67.1¢ → 74¢
+10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $167.39 | $162.08 | -$5.3 | 53% 579-512 (1091) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 62.9¢ | $83.32 | $89.41 | +$6.09 | 39% 238-378 (616) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Downavg 64.4¢ | $58.99 | $61.8 | +$2.81 | 42% 147-205 (352) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 65.9¢ | $50.97 | $51.44 | +$0.47 | 50% 3474-3513 (6987) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 61.9¢ | $47.8 | $48.61 | +$0.81 | 38% 239-389 (628) |
Invested
$167.39
Value
$162.08
PnL
-$5.3
Record
53%
579-512 (1091)
Invested
$83.32
Value
$89.41
PnL
+$6.09
Record
39%
238-378 (616)
Invested
$58.99
Value
$61.8
PnL
+$2.81
Record
42%
147-205 (352)
Invested
$50.97
Value
$51.44
PnL
+$0.47
Record
50%
3474-3513 (6987)
Invested
$47.8
Value
$48.61
PnL
+$0.81
Record
38%
239-389 (628)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.