Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (87%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (63%) · Up at 14¢ · $641 held · ends Nov 15

Up14¢Down86¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$640.86

Combined PnL

$2.59

Research grade

AvoidUp at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Down 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up14%

Down87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$111.12

Total Shares131

Combined PnL+$4.88

Up5 traders

Total Value$29.02

Total Shares85

Combined PnL-$2.29

Down — 38%Up — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.3¢	$505.76	$500.73	-$1.71	54% 4218-3562 (7780)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.3¢	$252.73	$389.32	+$136.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$246.72	$111.41	-$138.39
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 82.4¢	$99.79	$104.74	+$4.95	49% 3629-3730 (7359)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 34.1¢	$11.19	$12.1	+$0.91	44% 1390-1746 (3136)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$4.7	$5	+$0.3	50% 972-964 (1936)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$4.8	$4.26	-$0.54	42% 2086-2846 (4932)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 21.4¢	$6.52	$4.11	-$2.41	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 75¢	$3.75	$3.88	+$0.13	48% 2440-2688 (5128)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$4.1	$3.55	-$0.55	54% 2708-2292 (5000)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.5	-$0.2	51% 2181-2090 (4271)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$505.76

Value

$500.73

PnL

-$1.71

Record

54%

4218-3562 (7780)

Both legs:

Down$252.7350.3¢+$136.68

Up$246.7249.8¢-$138.39

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$99.79

Value

$104.74

PnL

+$4.95

Record

49%

3629-3730 (7359)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$11.19

Value

$12.1

PnL

+$0.91

Record

44%

1390-1746 (3136)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

PnL

+$0.3

Record

50%

972-964 (1936)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.26

PnL

-$0.54

Record

42%

2086-2846 (4932)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$6.52

Value

$4.11

PnL

-$2.41

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.88

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

2440-2688 (5128)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$0.55

Record

54%

2708-2292 (5000)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.2

Record

51%

2181-2090 (4271)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Down 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.4%

13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$550.71

Max Loss

-$100.00

650.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.