Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (30%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 30%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$36.05

Smart Money Entry

47.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$513.54

Total Shares591

Combined PnL-$13.32

Down7 traders

Total Value$541.67

Total Shares614

Combined PnL+$49.37

Up — 30%Down — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$505	$500	+$0	55% 3148-2619 (5767)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 75.2¢	$260.1	$333.58	+$83.09	51% 2884-2810 (5694)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 66.5¢	$83.84	$63	-$20.84	41% 1415-2011 (3426)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 92.8¢	$37.11	$39.99	+$2.88	51% 2002-1886 (3888)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 69¢	$44.35	$37.5	-$6.85	50% 1717-1721 (3438)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 98¢	$35.11	$30	-$5.11	50% 1264-1258 (2522)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 86¢	$31.58	$29.6	-$1.98	54% 2121-1818 (3939)
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100	Upavg 31.2¢	$26.63	$13.26	-$13.37	50% 454-449 (903)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 61.3¢	$9.81	$8	-$1.81	48% 1122-1203 (2325)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$0.23	$0.28	+$0.05	51% 4508-4382 (8890)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$505

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

3148-2619 (5767)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$260.1

Value

$333.58

PnL

+$83.09

Record

51%

2884-2810 (5694)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Down

Invested

$83.84

Value

$63

PnL

-$20.84

Record

41%

1415-2011 (3426)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$37.11

Value

$39.99

PnL

+$2.88

Record

51%

2002-1886 (3888)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$44.35

Value

$37.5

PnL

-$6.85

Record

50%

1717-1721 (3438)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$35.11

Value

$30

PnL

-$5.11

Record

50%

1264-1258 (2522)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$31.58

Value

$29.6

PnL

-$1.98

Record

54%

2121-1818 (3939)

aswfadq1555CTR<$100

Invested

$26.63

Value

$13.26

PnL

-$13.37

Record

50%

454-449 (903)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$9.81

Value

PnL

-$1.81

Record

48%

1122-1203 (2325)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

4508-4382 (8890)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.