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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$476.22

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,055

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Down4 traders

Total Value$116.22

Total Shares116

Combined PnL-$3.79

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	56% 2341-1812 (4153)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	—
DE devonpollARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$360	$360	+$1.65	51% 254-244 (498)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$180	$360	+$180
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$177.5	—	-$178.35
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 86.7¢	$44.8	$48.88	+$4.08	53% 1264-1138 (2402)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 64.1¢	$37.2	$32.34	-$4.86	37% 685-1150 (1835)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 79¢	$17.76	$20	+$2.24	53% 1437-1267 (2704)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 71¢	$20.25	$15	-$5.25	44% 1174-1476 (2650)
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100	Upavg 48.7¢	$11.15	—	-$11.15	49% 271-280 (551)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	38% 803-1329 (2132)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 11¢	$2.8	—	-$2.8	47% 1493-1672 (3165)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 36¢	$3.6	—	-$3.6	47% 1200-1358 (2558)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2341-1812 (4153)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

—

devonpollARB<$100

Invested

$360

Value

$360

PnL

+$1.65

Record

51%

254-244 (498)

Both legs:

Down$18050¢+$180

Up$177.550¢-$178.35

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$44.8

Value

$48.88

PnL

+$4.08

Record

53%

1264-1138 (2402)

Invested

$37.2

Value

$32.34

PnL

-$4.86

Record

37%

685-1150 (1835)

Invested

$17.76

Value

$20

PnL

+$2.24

Record

53%

1437-1267 (2704)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$20.25

Value

$15

PnL

-$5.25

Record

44%

1174-1476 (2650)

aswfadq1555CTR<$100

Invested

$11.15

Value

—

PnL

-$11.15

Record

49%

271-280 (551)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

803-1329 (2132)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

—

PnL

-$2.8

Record

47%

1493-1672 (3165)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

—

PnL

-$3.6

Record

47%

1200-1358 (2558)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa52d64a0...0df21a

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1794477600

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

QuantumPebble673

Up — $0

devonpoll

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $48.88

13897651

Down — $32.34

ply-pm2

Down — $20

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $15

aswfadq1555

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Up — $0

suntori

Up — $0

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