Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Up (69%) · Up at 59¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Up59¢Down41¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$26.85

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 58.5¢

+14% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up59%

Down42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,140

Combined PnL+$3.86

Down4 traders

Total Value$83.3

Total Shares270

Combined PnL-$30.71

Up — 69%Down — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2312-1782 (4094)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
DE devonpollARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$360	$357.73	+$0.23	51% 244-238 (482)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$180	$196.2	+$16.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$177.5	$161.53	-$15.97
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 65.8¢	$31.27	$35.8	+$4.54	53% 1424-1248 (2672)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$29.41	$30.04	+$0.62	48% 1066-1149 (2215)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 71.4¢	$26.95	$27.48	+$0.53	51% 1618-1570 (3188)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 47.2¢	$49.25	$23.47	-$25.78	50% 1065-1079 (2144)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 22¢	$19.38	$18.06	-$1.32	38% 583-966 (1549)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 50¢	$18.74	$17.05	-$1.69	60% 2182-1462 (3644)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 50¢	$15	$15	+$0	53% 1253-1113 (2366)
AS aswfadq1555<$100	Upavg 73¢	$12.83	$13.24	+$0.42	49% 268-277 (545)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 49.5¢	$15.97	$11.74	-$4.23	37% 676-1142 (1818)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 79¢	$7.9	$7.85	-$0.05	48% 1158-1248 (2406)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 68¢	$5.44	$5.56	+$0.12	46% 1129-1340 (2469)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2312-1782 (4094)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

devonpollARB<$100

Down

Invested

$360

Value

$357.73

PnL

+$0.23

Record

51%

244-238 (482)

Both legs:

Down$18050¢+$16.2

Up$177.550¢-$15.97

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$31.27

Value

$35.8

PnL

+$4.54

Record

53%

1424-1248 (2672)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$29.41

Value

$30.04

PnL

+$0.62

Record

48%

1066-1149 (2215)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$26.95

Value

$27.48

PnL

+$0.53

Record

51%

1618-1570 (3188)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$49.25

Value

$23.47

PnL

-$25.78

Record

50%

1065-1079 (2144)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$19.38

Value

$18.06

PnL

-$1.32

Record

38%

583-966 (1549)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$18.74

Value

$17.05

PnL

-$1.69

Record

60%

2182-1462 (3644)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$15

Value

$15

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1253-1113 (2366)

aswfadq1555<$100

Invested

$12.83

Value

$13.24

PnL

+$0.42

Record

49%

268-277 (545)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15.97

Value

$11.74

PnL

-$4.23

Record

37%

676-1142 (1818)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$7.9

Value

$7.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

1158-1248 (2406)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$5.44

Value

$5.56

PnL

+$0.12

Record

46%

1129-1340 (2469)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.