Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Up (53%) · Up at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Up99¢Down1¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 53%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$145.63

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 98.5¢

+62% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 17 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up99%

Down2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,477

Combined PnL-$74.03

Down8 traders

Total Value$128.18

Total Shares917

Combined PnL-$71.6

Up — 53%Down — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	57% 2288-1755 (4043)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 88.7¢	$336.53	$243.6	-$92.94	51% 1610-1559 (3169)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 84¢	$94.5	$112.11	+$17.61	50% 1050-1060 (2110)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$93.1	$95	+$1.9	48% 1999-2208 (4207)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 71.8¢	$48.62	$47.78	-$0.84	53% 1405-1239 (2644)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 60.8¢	$29.23	$29.85	+$0.62	37% 667-1136 (1803)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 83¢	$27.2	$26.86	-$0.34	60% 2157-1447 (3604)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 87¢	$13.05	$14.85	+$1.8	44% 1135-1448 (2583)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 52¢	$10.4	$10.4	+$0	46% 1117-1330 (2447)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 52¢	$7.8	$7.8	+$0	47% 1159-1332 (2491)
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100	Downavg 27.7¢	$9.7	$6.13	-$3.57	49% 265-272 (537)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	50% 387-388 (775)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 10.2¢	$63.28	$3.73	-$59.55	38% 578-951 (1529)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 47¢	$0.89	$0.94	+$0.06	48% 1046-1143 (2189)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 52.8¢	$10.55	$0.07	-$10.48	48% 1146-1235 (2381)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.05	$0.05	+$0	37% 778-1309 (2087)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

2288-1755 (4043)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$336.53

Value

$243.6

PnL

-$92.94

Record

51%

1610-1559 (3169)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$94.5

Value

$112.11

PnL

+$17.61

Record

50%

1050-1060 (2110)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$93.1

Value

$95

PnL

+$1.9

Record

48%

1999-2208 (4207)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$48.62

Value

$47.78

PnL

-$0.84

Record

53%

1405-1239 (2644)

13897651<$100

Invested

$29.23

Value

$29.85

PnL

+$0.62

Record

37%

667-1136 (1803)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$27.2

Value

$26.86

PnL

-$0.34

Record

60%

2157-1447 (3604)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$13.05

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$1.8

Record

44%

1135-1448 (2583)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.4

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

1117-1330 (2447)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.8

Value

$7.8

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1159-1332 (2491)

aswfadq1555CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.7

Value

$6.13

PnL

-$3.57

Record

49%

265-272 (537)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

387-388 (775)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$63.28

Value

$3.73

PnL

-$59.55

Record

38%

578-951 (1529)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.94

PnL

+$0.06

Record

48%

1046-1143 (2189)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.55

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$10.48

Record

48%

1146-1235 (2381)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

778-1309 (2087)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 17 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.