Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
15
Up 33%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$424.24
Smart Money Signal
5 of 15 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $501.7 | $502.7 | +$3.62 | 57% 2288-1755 (4043) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.1¢ | $251.7 | $502.7 | +$251 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $246.46 | — | -$247.38 | |
DE devonpoll | Downavg 50¢ | $360 | $360 | +$1.5 | 51% 235-230 (465) |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 48.1¢ | $67.33 | $118.73 | +$59.39 | 48% 1999-2208 (4207) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 62.8¢ | $50.07 | $50 | -$0.07 | 53% 1405-1239 (2644) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 83.5¢ | $31.04 | $37.19 | +$6.15 | 50% 1050-1060 (2110) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $29.85 | $30.22 | +$5.08 | 44% 1135-1448 (2583) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 53.9¢ | $32 | $59.34 | +$27.34 | 60% 2157-1447 (3604) |
AS aswfadq1555<$100 | Downavg 72.7¢ | $11.18 | $15.38 | +$4.2 | 49% 265-272 (537) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 42.1¢ | $11 | — | -$11 | 37% 667-1136 (1803) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $4.3 | $10 | +$5.7 | 48% 1146-1235 (2381) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $7.8 | $15.6 | +$7.8 | 46% 1117-1330 (2447) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $4.95 | $5.05 | +$0.1 | 47% 1308-1484 (2792) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.7¢ | $3.93 | — | -$3.93 | 38% 578-951 (1529) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 10.1¢ | $20.75 | — | -$20.75 | 51% 1610-1559 (3169) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 38.3¢ | $5.75 | — | -$5.75 | 53% 1239-1097 (2336) |
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$501.7
Value
$502.7
PnL
+$3.62
Record
57%
2288-1755 (4043)
Both legs:
Invested
$360
Value
$360
PnL
+$1.5
Record
51%
235-230 (465)
Invested
$67.33
Value
$118.73
PnL
+$59.39
Record
48%
1999-2208 (4207)
Invested
$50.07
Value
$50
PnL
-$0.07
Record
53%
1405-1239 (2644)
Invested
$31.04
Value
$37.19
PnL
+$6.15
Record
50%
1050-1060 (2110)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$29.85
Value
$30.22
PnL
+$5.08
Record
44%
1135-1448 (2583)
Invested
$32
Value
$59.34
PnL
+$27.34
Record
60%
2157-1447 (3604)
Invested
$11.18
Value
$15.38
PnL
+$4.2
Record
49%
265-272 (537)
Invested
$11
Value
—
PnL
-$11
Record
37%
667-1136 (1803)
ohioism<$100Invested
$4.3
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.7
Record
48%
1146-1235 (2381)
Invested
$7.8
Value
$15.6
PnL
+$7.8
Record
46%
1117-1330 (2447)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.1
Record
47%
1308-1484 (2792)
Invested
$3.93
Value
—
PnL
-$3.93
Record
38%
578-951 (1529)
Invested
$20.75
Value
—
PnL
-$20.75
Record
51%
1610-1559 (3169)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$5.75
Value
—
PnL
-$5.75
Record
53%
1239-1097 (2336)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
devonpoll
Down — $360
38791873984189
Down — $118.73
ply-pm2
Down — $50
uninformedfloww
Down — $37.19
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $30.22
aaa221
Down — $59.34
aswfadq1555
Down — $15.38
13897651
CTRUp — $0