Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Down (73%) · Down at 51¢ · $440 held · ended Nov 3

Up49¢Down51¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

Total Value

$439.6

Combined PnL

$41.44

Smart Money Entry

70.2¢ → 51¢

-27% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up49%

Down51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$416.7

Total Shares449

Combined PnL+$48.95

Up3 traders

Total Value$22.91

Total Shares47

Combined PnL-$7.51

Down — 73%Up — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 78.2¢	$210.12	$259.16	+$49.04	57% 76018-58426 (134444)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 60.2¢	$59.76	$55.98	-$3.78	56% 7652-5933 (13585)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 66.4¢	$41.03	$40.06	-$0.97	64% 59684-34217 (93901)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 63¢	$30.95	$29.15	-$1.8	51% 9245-8860 (18105)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 36.6¢	$7.32	$9.9	+$2.58	63% 41447-24055 (65502)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 51.7¢	$10.35	$9.9	-$0.45	62% 45009-28029 (73038)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 64.4¢	$11.6	$9.09	-$2.51	58% 39234-28297 (67531)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 42.4¢	$4.51	$8.82	+$4.31	48% 9607-10542 (20149)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$21.24	$8.27	-$4.78	64% 26747-15055 (41802)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 55.7¢	$5.78	$5.55	-$0.23	55% 19456-15959 (35415)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$3.71	$3.73	+$0.02	91% 26272-2492 (28764)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$210.12

Value

$259.16

PnL

+$49.04

Record

57%

76018-58426 (134444)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$59.76

Value

$55.98

PnL

-$3.78

Record

56%

7652-5933 (13585)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$41.03

Value

$40.06

PnL

-$0.97

Record

64%

59684-34217 (93901)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$30.95

Value

$29.15

PnL

-$1.8

Record

51%

9245-8860 (18105)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$7.32

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$2.58

Record

63%

41447-24055 (65502)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$10.35

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$0.45

Record

62%

45009-28029 (73038)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$11.6

Value

$9.09

PnL

-$2.51

Record

58%

39234-28297 (67531)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$4.51

Value

$8.82

PnL

+$4.31

Record

48%

9607-10542 (20149)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$21.24

Value

$8.27

PnL

-$4.78

Record

64%

26747-15055 (41802)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$5.78

Value

$5.55

PnL

-$0.23

Record

55%

19456-15959 (35415)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$3.71

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$0.02

Record

91%

26272-2492 (28764)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.8%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$85.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

185.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.