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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Down 54%

Total Value

$205.06

Combined PnL

-$182.12

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares329

Combined PnL-$274.1

Up7 traders

Total Value$205.06

Total Shares205

Combined PnL+$91.97

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Downavg 76.9¢	$84.25	—	-$84.25	54% 14601-12460 (27061)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 53.6¢	$87.91	—	-$87.91	51% 8619-8118 (16737)
AS aswfadq1555	Upavg 36.7¢	$77.69	$141.25	+$63.57	54% 15440-13335 (28775)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$26.12	—	-$26.12	47% 11778-13375 (25153)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 57.5¢	$27.85	—	-$27.85	55% 18602-15184 (33786)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$17.2	—	-$17.2	56% 58796-45421 (104217)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$26.2	$26.46	+$0.26	93% 24547-1823 (26370)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 48.3¢	$28.97	—	-$28.97	64% 25249-13987 (39236)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 25.7¢	$2.8	$10.89	+$8.09	52% 91573-85984 (177557)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 25.5¢	$2.55	$10	+$7.45	63% 40806-23466 (64272)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100	Upavg 31¢	$3.55	$11.45	+$7.9	48% 23497-25796 (49293)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 36¢	$1.8	—	-$1.8	57% 71987-54791 (126778)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 6¢	$0.3	$5	+$4.7	58% 61251-44735 (105986)
DE devonpoll<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	51% 20462-19523 (39985)

tmsd-testCTR<$100

Invested

$84.25

Value

—

PnL

-$84.25

Record

54%

14601-12460 (27061)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$87.91

Value

—

PnL

-$87.91

Record

51%

8619-8118 (16737)

Invested

$77.69

Value

$141.25

PnL

+$63.57

Record

54%

15440-13335 (28775)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$26.12

Value

—

PnL

-$26.12

Record

47%

11778-13375 (25153)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$27.85

Value

—

PnL

-$27.85

Record

55%

18602-15184 (33786)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$17.2

Value

—

PnL

-$17.2

Record

56%

58796-45421 (104217)

Invested

$26.2

Value

$26.46

PnL

+$0.26

Record

93%

24547-1823 (26370)

Invested

$28.97

Value

—

PnL

-$28.97

Record

64%

25249-13987 (39236)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$10.89

PnL

+$8.09

Record

52%

91573-85984 (177557)

Invested

$2.55

Value

$10

PnL

+$7.45

Record

63%

40806-23466 (64272)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100

Invested

$3.55

Value

$11.45

PnL

+$7.9

Record

48%

23497-25796 (49293)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

—

PnL

-$1.8

Record

57%

71987-54791 (126778)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$0.3

Value

$5

PnL

+$4.7

Record

58%

61251-44735 (105986)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

20462-19523 (39985)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x8a9c8053...e72644

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1793596500

Traders in this Market

tmsd-test

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Down — $0

aswfadq1555

Up — $141.25

38791873984189

Down — $0

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $0

hoodquant

Up — $26.46

aaa221

Down — $0

dvasdkasodk

Up — $10.89

ohioism

Up — $10

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