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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Down 54%

Total Value

$200.95

Combined PnL

-$116

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares314

Combined PnL-$141.18

Up7 traders

Total Value$200.95

Total Shares201

Combined PnL+$25.18

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TM tmsd-testCTR	Downavg 69.5¢	$110.69	—	-$110.69	54% 14526-12369 (26895)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 58.2¢	$66.11	$77.11	+$11	52% 8084-7595 (15679)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 87.4¢	$38.6	$43.68	+$5.07	64% 24226-13368 (37594)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 14.7¢	$18.33	—	-$18.33	57% 71362-54385 (125747)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Upavg 99.9¢	$16.04	$16.06	+$0.02	59% 62520-43633 (106153)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 69¢	$13.8	$20	+$6.2	58% 60841-44423 (105264)
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100	Downavg 34.5¢	$3.45	—	-$3.45	54% 15415-13298 (28713)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$38.61	$39	+$0.39	93% 24031-1800 (25831)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	66% 112365-59078 (171443)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Downavg 17¢	$5.81	—	-$5.81	63% 52240-31232 (83472)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 51¢	$2.6	$5.1	+$2.5	58% 51198-37322 (88520)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 16¢	$1.05	—	-$1.05	55% 18125-14708 (32833)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 7.6¢	$1.8	—	-$1.8	56% 58403-45070 (103473)
DE devonpoll<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	51% 20272-19399 (39671)

Invested

$110.69

Value

—

PnL

-$110.69

Record

54%

14526-12369 (26895)

Invested

$66.11

Value

$77.11

PnL

+$11

Record

52%

8084-7595 (15679)

Invested

$38.6

Value

$43.68

PnL

+$5.07

Record

64%

24226-13368 (37594)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$18.33

Value

—

PnL

-$18.33

Record

57%

71362-54385 (125747)

Invested

$16.04

Value

$16.06

PnL

+$0.02

Record

59%

62520-43633 (106153)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$13.8

Value

$20

PnL

+$6.2

Record

58%

60841-44423 (105264)

aswfadq1555CTR<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

—

PnL

-$3.45

Record

54%

15415-13298 (28713)

Invested

$38.61

Value

$39

PnL

+$0.39

Record

93%

24031-1800 (25831)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

66%

112365-59078 (171443)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$5.81

Value

—

PnL

-$5.81

Record

63%

52240-31232 (83472)

Invested

$2.6

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$2.5

Record

58%

51198-37322 (88520)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

—

PnL

-$1.05

Record

55%

18125-14708 (32833)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

—

PnL

-$1.8

Record

56%

58403-45070 (103473)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

20272-19399 (39671)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x74baed5f...1e4cd8

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1793481300

Traders in this Market

tmsd-test

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Up — $77.11

aaa221

Up — $43.68

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

0x50f7

Up — $16.06

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $20

aswfadq1555

Down — $0

hoodquant

Up — $39

antsaslyku

Down — $0

UpandDownSyndrome

Down — $0

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