Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 36%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
-$824.48
Smart Money Signal
5 of 14 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 77.4¢ | $474.6 | $476.55 | +$1.95 | 52% 8114-7618 (15732) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18.9¢ | $105.64 | — | -$105.64 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 77.4¢ | $368.96 | $476.55 | +$107.59 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 59.2¢ | $690.73 | — | -$650.78 | 57% 71395-54409 (125804) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.5¢ | $727.35 | $738.23 | +$10.88 | 93% 24047-1801 (25848) |
TM tmsd-testCTR | Upavg 37.4¢ | $149.9 | — | -$149.9 | 54% 14530-12375 (26905) |
 wowitsamazing | Downavg 57.9¢ | $173.81 | $299.99 | +$126.18 | 57% 12730-9443 (22173) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 50.9¢ | $53.2 | — | -$53.2 | 55% 18138-14723 (32861) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 65.7¢ | $78.4 | — | -$62.68 | 64% 24274-13401 (37675) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 17.9¢ | $13.2 | $53.53 | +$40.33 | 63% 52248-31272 (83520) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 56.5¢ | $24.76 | — | -$24.76 | 58% 60853-44436 (105289) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 69.2¢ | $20.6 | $20.23 | -$0.37 | 64% 40419-23136 (63555) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.5¢ | $22.53 | — | -$22.53 | 62% 44057-27075 (71132) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $25.8 | $20 | -$5.8 | 56% 58419-45082 (103501) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 84.6¢ | $35.6 | — | -$25.6 | 51% 20282-19401 (39683) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $6.2 | — | -$6.2 | 52% 90943-85477 (176420) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 112373-59102 (171475) |
Invested
$474.6
Value
$476.55
PnL
+$1.95
Record
52%
8114-7618 (15732)
Both legs:
Invested
$690.73
Value
—
PnL
-$650.78
Record
57%
71395-54409 (125804)
Invested
$727.35
Value
$738.23
PnL
+$10.88
Record
93%
24047-1801 (25848)
Invested
$149.9
Value
—
PnL
-$149.9
Record
54%
14530-12375 (26905)
wowitsamazingInvested
$173.81
Value
$299.99
PnL
+$126.18
Record
57%
12730-9443 (22173)
Invested
$53.2
Value
—
PnL
-$53.2
Record
55%
18138-14723 (32861)
Invested
$78.4
Value
—
PnL
-$62.68
Record
64%
24274-13401 (37675)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$13.2
Value
$53.53
PnL
+$40.33
Record
63%
52248-31272 (83520)
Invested
$24.76
Value
—
PnL
-$24.76
Record
58%
60853-44436 (105289)
ohioism<$100Invested
$20.6
Value
$20.23
PnL
-$0.37
Record
64%
40419-23136 (63555)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$22.53
Value
—
PnL
-$22.53
Record
62%
44057-27075 (71132)
Invested
$25.8
Value
$20
PnL
-$5.8
Record
56%
58419-45082 (103501)
Invested
$35.6
Value
—
PnL
-$25.6
Record
51%
20282-19401 (39683)
Invested
$6.2
Value
—
PnL
-$6.2
Record
52%
90943-85477 (176420)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
112373-59102 (171475)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $738.23
tmsd-test
CTRUp — $0
wowitsamazing
Down — $299.99
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $53.53
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0
ohioism
Down — $20.23