Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
$709.75
-$34.49
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 85.5¢ | $593.1 | $515.07 | -$78.03 | 57% 71318-54356 (125674) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 85.5¢ | $440.52 | $515.07 | +$74.55 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 22.6¢ | $152.58 | — | -$152.58 | |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 75.8¢ | $102.49 | $101.86 | -$0.63 | 52% 8055-7577 (15632) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $23.35 | $29.56 | +$6.2 | 58% 60824-44408 (105232) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $17.4 | $20.23 | +$2.83 | 62% 44015-27038 (71053) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $19.8 | $20 | +$0.2 | 93% 24008-1800 (25808) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Upavg 25.3¢ | $20.43 | — | -$20.43 | 54% 14522-12366 (26888) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 85.1¢ | $16.32 | $13.44 | -$2.88 | 52% 90876-85429 (176305) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 84.8¢ | $29.18 | $9.6 | -$6.65 | 64% 24172-13343 (37515) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 16.3¢ | $6.15 | — | -$6.15 | 63% 52223-31187 (83410) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 11¢ | $2.8 | — | -$2.8 | 56% 58383-45054 (103437) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 29¢ | $3 | — | -$3 | 55% 18106-14696 (32802) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 16¢ | $3.2 | — | -$1.18 | 51% 20264-19394 (39658) |
Invested
$593.1
Value
$515.07
PnL
-$78.03
Record
57%
71318-54356 (125674)
Both legs:
Invested
$102.49
Value
$101.86
PnL
-$0.63
Record
52%
8055-7577 (15632)
Invested
$23.35
Value
$29.56
PnL
+$6.2
Record
58%
60824-44408 (105232)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$17.4
Value
$20.23
PnL
+$2.83
Record
62%
44015-27038 (71053)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.2
Record
93%
24008-1800 (25808)
Invested
$20.43
Value
—
PnL
-$20.43
Record
54%
14522-12366 (26888)
Invested
$16.32
Value
$13.44
PnL
-$2.88
Record
52%
90876-85429 (176305)
Invested
$29.18
Value
$9.6
PnL
-$6.65
Record
64%
24172-13343 (37515)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$6.15
Value
—
PnL
-$6.15
Record
63%
52223-31187 (83410)
Invested
$2.8
Value
—
PnL
-$2.8
Record
56%
58383-45054 (103437)
Invested
$3
Value
—
PnL
-$3
Record
55%
18106-14696 (32802)
Invested
$3.2
Value
—
PnL
-$1.18
Record
51%
20264-19394 (39658)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $101.86
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $29.56
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $20.23
hoodquant
Down — $20
tmsd-test
CTRUp — $0
dvasdkasodk
Down — $13.44
aaa221
Down — $9.6
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0