Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 73%
1 arb excluded
$538.04
-$41.03
Smart Money Signal
8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 67.4¢ | $213.52 | $273.83 | +$60.31 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 67.7¢ | $87.55 | $85.2 | -$2.35 | 52% 7995-7522 (15517) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 35.6¢ | $62.82 | $68.8 | +$5.98 | 64% 58692-33276 (91968) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.8¢ | $30.84 | $68.8 | +$37.96 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.6¢ | $31.98 | — | -$31.98 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $61.52 | $60 | +$15.19 | 64% 24039-13275 (37314) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Upavg 53.6¢ | $93.94 | — | -$93.94 | 54% 14514-12353 (26867) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 46.2¢ | $12.55 | $20.34 | +$7.79 | 64% 40342-23071 (63413) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $12.5 | $10 | -$2.5 | 62% 43985-26997 (70982) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $5.94 | $6.41 | +$0.47 | 52% 90814-85344 (176158) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $5 | $8.47 | +$3.47 | 66% 112343-59004 (171347) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $26.55 | — | -$26.55 | 55% 18044-14641 (32685) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 93% 23963-1799 (25762) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 9.6¢ | $2.97 | — | -$2.97 | 63% 52187-31091 (83278) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20241-19372 (39613) |
Invested
$213.52
Value
$273.83
PnL
+$60.31
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
Invested
$87.55
Value
$85.2
PnL
-$2.35
Record
52%
7995-7522 (15517)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$62.82
Value
$68.8
PnL
+$5.98
Record
64%
58692-33276 (91968)
Both legs:
Invested
$61.52
Value
$60
PnL
+$15.19
Record
64%
24039-13275 (37314)
Invested
$93.94
Value
—
PnL
-$93.94
Record
54%
14514-12353 (26867)
ohioism<$100Invested
$12.55
Value
$20.34
PnL
+$7.79
Record
64%
40342-23071 (63413)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$12.5
Value
$10
PnL
-$2.5
Record
62%
43985-26997 (70982)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$6.41
PnL
+$0.47
Record
52%
90814-85344 (176158)
Invested
$5
Value
$8.47
PnL
+$3.47
Record
66%
112343-59004 (171347)
Invested
$26.55
Value
—
PnL
-$26.55
Record
55%
18044-14641 (32685)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
93%
23963-1799 (25762)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$2.97
Value
—
PnL
-$2.97
Record
63%
52187-31091 (83278)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20241-19372 (39613)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
Down — $273.83
ply-pm2
Down — $85.2
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
Down — $60
tmsd-test
CTRUp — $0
ohioism
Down — $20.34
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $10
dvasdkasodk
Down — $6.41
antsaslyku
Down — $8.47
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0