Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
12
Up 58%
1 arb excluded
$571.35
-$160.22
Smart Money Signal
7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 45.6¢ | $579.96 | $374.04 | -$205.92 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 74.2¢ | $277.62 | $374.04 | +$96.42 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.6¢ | $302.34 | — | -$302.34 | |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 37.1¢ | $93.17 | — | -$93.17 | 64% 58688-33274 (91962) |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 71.3¢ | $121.91 | $116.66 | -$5.25 | 52% 7967-7500 (15467) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $67.27 | $52.26 | +$13.15 | 64% 23991-13230 (37221) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Upavg 29.7¢ | $28.7 | — | -$28.7 | 54% 14512-12347 (26859) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $23.8 | $20 | -$3.8 | 62% 43966-26982 (70948) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 33.6¢ | $10.8 | — | -$10.8 | 55% 18044-14641 (32685) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 35.9¢ | $25.79 | — | -$13.22 | 51% 20230-19367 (39597) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $8.2 | — | -$8.2 | 56% 58323-44993 (103316) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $6.25 | $5.23 | -$1.02 | 52% 90788-85318 (176106) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 64% 40317-23061 (63378) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.58 | $3.16 | +$1.58 | 58% 51123-37260 (88383) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 19.7¢ | $8.39 | — | -$8.39 | 63% 52172-31048 (83220) |
Invested
$579.96
Value
$374.04
PnL
-$205.92
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$93.17
Value
—
PnL
-$93.17
Record
64%
58688-33274 (91962)
Invested
$121.91
Value
$116.66
PnL
-$5.25
Record
52%
7967-7500 (15467)
Invested
$67.27
Value
$52.26
PnL
+$13.15
Record
64%
23991-13230 (37221)
Invested
$28.7
Value
—
PnL
-$28.7
Record
54%
14512-12347 (26859)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$23.8
Value
$20
PnL
-$3.8
Record
62%
43966-26982 (70948)
Invested
$10.8
Value
—
PnL
-$10.8
Record
55%
18044-14641 (32685)
Invested
$25.79
Value
—
PnL
-$13.22
Record
51%
20230-19367 (39597)
Invested
$8.2
Value
—
PnL
-$8.2
Record
56%
58323-44993 (103316)
Invested
$6.25
Value
$5.23
PnL
-$1.02
Record
52%
90788-85318 (176106)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
64%
40317-23061 (63378)
Invested
$1.58
Value
$3.16
PnL
+$1.58
Record
58%
51123-37260 (88383)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$8.39
Value
—
PnL
-$8.39
Record
63%
52172-31048 (83220)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $116.66
aaa221
Down — $52.26
tmsd-test
CTRUp — $0
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $20
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0
dvasdkasodk
Down — $5.23