Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Up 36%
1 arb excluded
$617.01
-$159.68
Smart Money Signal
5 of 14 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 68.1¢ | $245.2 | $356.8 | +$111.6 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
 wowitsamazingCTR | Downavg 49.2¢ | $153.41 | — | -$153.41 | 57% 12716-9424 (22140) |
PL ply-pm2 | Upavg 55.9¢ | $147.91 | $146.71 | -$1.2 | 52% 7967-7500 (15467) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 66.7¢ | $117.55 | $72 | +$7.35 | 64% 58688-33274 (91962) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.7¢ | $29.48 | — | -$29.48 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66.7¢ | $48.04 | $72 | +$36.83 | |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Downavg 25.8¢ | $28.82 | — | -$28.82 | 54% 14512-12347 (26859) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 50.6¢ | $50.94 | — | -$36.57 | 64% 23991-13230 (37221) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 14¢ | $16.11 | — | -$16.11 | 63% 52172-31048 (83220) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $18.97 | — | -$18.97 | 58% 38135-27322 (65457) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 66.7¢ | $14.2 | $21.29 | +$7.09 | 51% 20230-19367 (39597) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $13.86 | $14 | +$0.14 | 93% 23943-1796 (25739) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $11.4 | — | -$11.4 | 56% 58323-44993 (103316) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $8.8 | — | -$8.8 | 62% 43966-26982 (70948) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $5.28 | $6.21 | +$0.93 | 52% 90788-85318 (176106) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $2.6 | — | -$2.6 | 58% 51123-37260 (88383) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 29¢ | $1.55 | — | -$1.55 | 55% 18044-14641 (32685) |
Invested
$245.2
Value
$356.8
PnL
+$111.6
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
wowitsamazingCTRInvested
$153.41
Value
—
PnL
-$153.41
Record
57%
12716-9424 (22140)
Invested
$147.91
Value
$146.71
PnL
-$1.2
Record
52%
7967-7500 (15467)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$117.55
Value
$72
PnL
+$7.35
Record
64%
58688-33274 (91962)
Both legs:
Invested
$28.82
Value
—
PnL
-$28.82
Record
54%
14512-12347 (26859)
Invested
$50.94
Value
—
PnL
-$36.57
Record
64%
23991-13230 (37221)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$16.11
Value
—
PnL
-$16.11
Record
63%
52172-31048 (83220)
Invested
$18.97
Value
—
PnL
-$18.97
Record
58%
38135-27322 (65457)
Invested
$14.2
Value
$21.29
PnL
+$7.09
Record
51%
20230-19367 (39597)
Invested
$13.86
Value
$14
PnL
+$0.14
Record
93%
23943-1796 (25739)
Invested
$11.4
Value
—
PnL
-$11.4
Record
56%
58323-44993 (103316)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$8.8
Value
—
PnL
-$8.8
Record
62%
43966-26982 (70948)
Invested
$5.28
Value
$6.21
PnL
+$0.93
Record
52%
90788-85318 (176106)
Invested
$2.6
Value
—
PnL
-$2.6
Record
58%
51123-37260 (88383)
Invested
$1.55
Value
—
PnL
-$1.55
Record
55%
18044-14641 (32685)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
Up — $356.8
wowitsamazing
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm2
Up — $146.71
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
tmsd-test
CTRDown — $0
aaa221
CTRDown — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRDown — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
devonpoll
Up — $21.29
hoodquant
Up — $14