Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Up 64%
3 arb excluded
$1.2K
$48.6
Smart Money Signal
8 of 12 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.9¢ | $274.02 | $287.32 | +$13.3 | 52% 7945-7473 (15418) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.5¢ | $127.87 | — | -$127.87 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.9¢ | $146.15 | $287.32 | +$141.17 | |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 56.6¢ | $262.04 | $303.46 | +$41.42 | 57% 71205-54305 (125510) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.2¢ | $90.21 | — | -$90.21 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.6¢ | $171.83 | $303.46 | +$131.63 | |
TM tmsd-testARB<$100 | Upavg 48.3¢ | $218.39 | $292.04 | +$73.65 | 54% 14509-12345 (26854) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.3¢ | $141.05 | $292.04 | +$151 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 81.4¢ | $77.34 | — | -$77.34 | |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 18.6¢ | $24.05 | — | -$24.05 | 63% 52154-31006 (83160) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Upavg 61.5¢ | $36.6 | $59.53 | +$22.93 | 57% 12715-9420 (22135) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 76.1¢ | $49.81 | $38.21 | -$11.59 | 64% 23928-13193 (37121) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $22.85 | $23.08 | +$0.23 | 93% 23917-1795 (25712) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $21 | $20 | -$1 | 62% 43949-26970 (70919) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $8.4 | — | -$8.4 | 56% 58298-44982 (103280) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 40.8¢ | $50.6 | $124.17 | +$73.57 | 55% 18043-14638 (32681) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $10.6 | — | -$10.6 | 64% 40299-23045 (63344) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 49.5¢ | $9.9 | — | -$9.9 | 58% 51106-37241 (88347) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $6.1 | $10 | +$3.9 | 58% 60750-44342 (105092) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $2.2 | $15.71 | +$13.51 | 52% 90753-85289 (176042) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 87¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20217-19360 (39577) |
Invested
$274.02
Value
$287.32
PnL
+$13.3
Record
52%
7945-7473 (15418)
Both legs:
Invested
$262.04
Value
$303.46
PnL
+$41.42
Record
57%
71205-54305 (125510)
Both legs:
Invested
$218.39
Value
$292.04
PnL
+$73.65
Record
54%
14509-12345 (26854)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$24.05
Value
—
PnL
-$24.05
Record
63%
52154-31006 (83160)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$36.6
Value
$59.53
PnL
+$22.93
Record
57%
12715-9420 (22135)
Invested
$49.81
Value
$38.21
PnL
-$11.59
Record
64%
23928-13193 (37121)
Invested
$22.85
Value
$23.08
PnL
+$0.23
Record
93%
23917-1795 (25712)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$21
Value
$20
PnL
-$1
Record
62%
43949-26970 (70919)
Invested
$8.4
Value
—
PnL
-$8.4
Record
56%
58298-44982 (103280)
Invested
$50.6
Value
$124.17
PnL
+$73.57
Record
55%
18043-14638 (32681)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$10.6
Value
—
PnL
-$10.6
Record
64%
40299-23045 (63344)
Invested
$9.9
Value
—
PnL
-$9.9
Record
58%
51106-37241 (88347)
Invested
$6.1
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.9
Record
58%
60750-44342 (105092)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$15.71
PnL
+$13.51
Record
52%
90753-85289 (176042)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20217-19360 (39577)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
tmsd-test
ARBArbitrage — excluded
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRDown — $0
wowitsamazing
Up — $59.53
aaa221
Up — $38.21
hoodquant
Up — $23.08
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $20
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRDown — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $124.17