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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Up 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$330.2

Combined PnL

-$113.21

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$280.63

Total Shares281

Combined PnL+$31.89

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares358

Combined PnL-$145.1

Down — 36%Up — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 60.1¢	$133.32	$132.03	-$1.29	52% 7945-7473 (15418)
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Upavg 37.7¢	$87.99	—	-$87.99	54% 14509-12345 (26854)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 52.7¢	$62.41	$85.05	+$22.65	58% 38113-27312 (65425)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 62.5¢	$71.92	$53.42	+$14.36	64% 23928-13193 (37121)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 55.8¢	$42.71	$49.57	+$6.86	64% 58676-33266 (91942)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.8¢	$27.67	$49.57	+$21.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.3¢	$15.03	—	-$15.03
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$33.83	—	-$33.83	56% 58298-44982 (103280)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 79¢	$13.95	$10.13	-$3.82	55% 18043-14638 (32681)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 28¢	$8.4	—	-$8.4	55% 50677-41281 (91958)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 33.1¢	$6.77	—	-$6.77	51% 20217-19360 (39577)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$3.64	—	-$3.64	52% 90753-85289 (176042)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 6.8¢	$3.4	—	-$3.4	66% 112325-58945 (171270)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 5¢	$1.07	—	-$1.07	63% 52154-31006 (83160)

Invested

$133.32

Value

$132.03

PnL

-$1.29

Record

52%

7945-7473 (15418)

tmsd-testCTR<$100

Invested

$87.99

Value

—

PnL

-$87.99

Record

54%

14509-12345 (26854)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$62.41

Value

$85.05

PnL

+$22.65

Record

58%

38113-27312 (65425)

Invested

$71.92

Value

$53.42

PnL

+$14.36

Record

64%

23928-13193 (37121)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$42.71

Value

$49.57

PnL

+$6.86

Record

64%

58676-33266 (91942)

Both legs:

Down$27.6755.8¢+$21.9

Up$15.0330.3¢-$15.03

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$33.83

Value

—

PnL

-$33.83

Record

56%

58298-44982 (103280)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$13.95

Value

$10.13

PnL

-$3.82

Record

55%

18043-14638 (32681)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

—

PnL

-$8.4

Record

55%

50677-41281 (91958)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$6.77

Value

—

PnL

-$6.77

Record

51%

20217-19360 (39577)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$3.64

Value

—

PnL

-$3.64

Record

52%

90753-85289 (176042)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

—

PnL

-$3.4

Record

66%

112325-58945 (171270)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$1.07

Value

—

PnL

-$1.07

Record

63%

52154-31006 (83160)

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb4da3de9...b6cda1

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1793447100

Traders in this Market

ply-pm2

Down — $132.03

tmsd-test

Up — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $85.05

aaa221

Down — $53.42

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $0

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $10.13

mo-money

Up — $0

devonpoll

Up — $0

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

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