Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
7
Down 100%
1 arb excluded
$184.06
$61.42
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 53.8¢ | $59.92 | $60 | +$0.08 | 52% 7885-7424 (15309) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.8¢ | $32.3 | $60 | +$27.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53¢ | $27.62 | — | -$27.62 | |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 43.4¢ | $17.55 | $40.37 | +$22.82 | 64% 58572-33180 (91752) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $16.94 | $18.02 | +$1.08 | 64% 23828-13134 (36962) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $11 | $20 | +$9 | 62% 43934-26954 (70888) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 30¢ | $6.2 | $20.67 | +$14.47 | 56% 58267-44968 (103235) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 30¢ | $6 | $20 | +$14 | 64% 40270-23036 (63306) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 63% 52124-30942 (83066) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20197-19346 (39543) |
Invested
$59.92
Value
$60
PnL
+$0.08
Record
52%
7885-7424 (15309)
Both legs:
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$17.55
Value
$40.37
PnL
+$22.82
Record
64%
58572-33180 (91752)
Invested
$16.94
Value
$18.02
PnL
+$1.08
Record
64%
23828-13134 (36962)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$11
Value
$20
PnL
+$9
Record
62%
43934-26954 (70888)
Invested
$6.2
Value
$20.67
PnL
+$14.47
Record
56%
58267-44968 (103235)
ohioism<$100Invested
$6
Value
$20
PnL
+$14
Record
64%
40270-23036 (63306)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
63%
52124-30942 (83066)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20197-19346 (39543)
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