Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
8
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
$187.72
-$93.78
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 55.5Β’ | $81.27 | $78.51 | -$2.77 | 51% 7854-7405 (15259) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 55.5Β’ | $43.59 | $78.51 | +$34.91 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 52.3Β’ | $37.68 | β | -$37.68 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 54.5Β’ | $78.57 | $73.29 | -$0.63 | 64% 23759-13098 (36857) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Downavg 75Β’ | $36.2 | β | -$36.2 | 54% 14497-12335 (26832) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Downavg 73.1Β’ | $27.81 | β | -$27.81 | 55% 48556-40105 (88661) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 75Β’ | $22.5 | β | -$22.5 | 55% 50645-41244 (91889) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 53Β’ | $21.6 | $20.75 | +$4.54 | 51% 20187-19342 (39529) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 81.5Β’ | $17.11 | β | -$17.11 | 58% 38071-27285 (65356) |
![]() ohioism<$100 | Upavg 77Β’ | $7.7 | $10 | +$2.3 | 64% 40258-23030 (63288) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 30Β’ | $1.55 | $5.17 | +$3.62 | 52% 90652-85212 (175864) |
Invested
$81.27
Value
$78.51
PnL
-$2.77
Record
51%
7854-7405 (15259)
Both legs:
Invested
$78.57
Value
$73.29
PnL
-$0.63
Record
64%
23759-13098 (36857)
Invested
$36.2
Value
β
PnL
-$36.2
Record
54%
14497-12335 (26832)
Invested
$27.81
Value
β
PnL
-$27.81
Record
55%
48556-40105 (88661)
Invested
$22.5
Value
β
PnL
-$22.5
Record
55%
50645-41244 (91889)
Invested
$21.6
Value
$20.75
PnL
+$4.54
Record
51%
20187-19342 (39529)
Invested
$17.11
Value
β
PnL
-$17.11
Record
58%
38071-27285 (65356)
ohioism<$100Invested
$7.7
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.3
Record
64%
40258-23030 (63288)
Invested
$1.55
Value
$5.17
PnL
+$3.62
Record
52%
90652-85212 (175864)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded
aaa221
Up β $73.29
tmsd-test
CTRDown β $0
almach
CTRDown β $0
mo-money
CTRDown β $0
devonpoll
Up β $20.75
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown β $0

ohioism
Up β $10
dvasdkasodk
Up β $5.17