Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
8
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$386.44
-$8.7
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.1¢ | $264.81 | $270 | +$5.19 | 93% 23707-1785 (25492) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 64.5¢ | $82.87 | $83.28 | +$0.41 | 51% 7743-7307 (15050) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.5¢ | $53.73 | $83.28 | +$29.55 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.8¢ | $29.14 | — | -$29.14 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $14.36 | — | -$14.36 | 58% 37996-27224 (65220) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 76.3¢ | $33.29 | $17.08 | +$1.69 | 64% 23528-12966 (36494) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 21.7¢ | $3.8 | — | -$3.8 | 51% 20141-19302 (39443) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 15.6¢ | $2.72 | — | -$2.72 | 63% 52043-30715 (82758) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $4.44 | $6 | +$1.56 | 52% 90518-85062 (175580) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 62.5¢ | $6.3 | $10.08 | +$3.78 | 55% 17960-14549 (32509) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 112280-58767 (171047) |
Invested
$264.81
Value
$270
PnL
+$5.19
Record
93%
23707-1785 (25492)
Invested
$82.87
Value
$83.28
PnL
+$0.41
Record
51%
7743-7307 (15050)
Both legs:
Invested
$14.36
Value
—
PnL
-$14.36
Record
58%
37996-27224 (65220)
Invested
$33.29
Value
$17.08
PnL
+$1.69
Record
64%
23528-12966 (36494)
Invested
$3.8
Value
—
PnL
-$3.8
Record
51%
20141-19302 (39443)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$2.72
Value
—
PnL
-$2.72
Record
63%
52043-30715 (82758)
Invested
$4.44
Value
$6
PnL
+$1.56
Record
52%
90518-85062 (175580)
Invested
$6.3
Value
$10.08
PnL
+$3.78
Record
55%
17960-14549 (32509)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
112280-58767 (171047)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $270
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $17.08
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRUp — $0
dvasdkasodk
Down — $6
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $10.08
antsaslyku
CTRUp — $0