Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
9
Down 88%
2 arb excluded
$1.7K
$196.21
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Downavg 79.6¢ | $761.6 | $692.98 | -$68.62 | 54% 15363-13243 (28606) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 79.6¢ | $551.28 | $692.98 | +$141.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.6¢ | $210.32 | — | -$210.32 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $436.85 | $441.26 | +$4.41 | 93% 23585-1776 (25361) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 57¢ | $174.41 | $305.9 | +$131.48 | 57% 71009-54091 (125100) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 60.3¢ | $87.04 | $89.51 | +$2.48 | 51% 7681-7235 (14916) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.3¢ | $53.98 | $89.51 | +$35.53 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.4¢ | $33.05 | — | -$33.05 | |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $39.05 | $41.12 | +$2.07 | 63% 52008-30666 (82674) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 58.2¢ | $67.03 | $60 | +$16.71 | 64% 23388-12902 (36290) |
TM tmsd-test<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $12.9 | $50 | +$37.1 | 54% 14477-12310 (26787) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 59.5¢ | $8.34 | $11.5 | +$3.16 | 52% 90443-84945 (175388) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $10.27 | $12.68 | +$2.41 | 64% 40165-22974 (63139) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $1.13 | — | -$1.13 | 46% 7988-9443 (17431) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20108-19252 (39360) |
Invested
$761.6
Value
$692.98
PnL
-$68.62
Record
54%
15363-13243 (28606)
Both legs:
Invested
$436.85
Value
$441.26
PnL
+$4.41
Record
93%
23585-1776 (25361)
Invested
$174.41
Value
$305.9
PnL
+$131.48
Record
57%
71009-54091 (125100)
Invested
$87.04
Value
$89.51
PnL
+$2.48
Record
51%
7681-7235 (14916)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$39.05
Value
$41.12
PnL
+$2.07
Record
63%
52008-30666 (82674)
Invested
$67.03
Value
$60
PnL
+$16.71
Record
64%
23388-12902 (36290)
Invested
$12.9
Value
$50
PnL
+$37.1
Record
54%
14477-12310 (26787)
Invested
$8.34
Value
$11.5
PnL
+$3.16
Record
52%
90443-84945 (175388)
ohioism<$100Invested
$10.27
Value
$12.68
PnL
+$2.41
Record
64%
40165-22974 (63139)
Invested
$1.13
Value
—
PnL
-$1.13
Record
46%
7988-9443 (17431)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20108-19252 (39360)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $441.26
uninformedfloww
Down — $305.9
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $41.12
aaa221
Down — $60
tmsd-test
Down — $50
dvasdkasodk
Down — $11.5
ohioism
Down — $12.68
38791873984189
CTRUp — $0